Newell's Old Boys
vs
Central Cordoba de Santiago
Liga Profesional Argentina prediction
Our model says: Newell's Old Boys 1–0 Central Cordoba de Santiago
The model makes it 43% Newell's Old Boys, 32% draw, 25% Central Cordoba de Santiago — fair odds of 2.33, 3.13 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (16%).
Expected goals: Newell's Old Boys 1.27, Central Cordoba de Santiago 0.74.
Both teams to score: 38%. Over 2.5 goals: 33%, under 2.5: 67%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- Newell's Old Boys are 7th on 17 points from 11 games; Central Cordoba de Santiago are bottom on 8 points from 10 games — Liga Profesional Argentina, Clausura - Group A.
- Newell's Old Boys are unbeaten in their last 5 (1 won), most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Lanus.
- Central Cordoba de Santiago have not won in their last 5, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Defensa Y Justicia.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 5 April 2026, ended Central Cordoba de Santiago 1–3 Newell's Old Boys.
All Liga Profesional Argentina predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Newell's Old Boys vs Central Cordoba de Santiago
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Newell's Old Boys at 43% here. Across 3,018 settled matches (as of 4 October 2026), 1,401 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Newell's Old Boys vs Central Cordoba de Santiago
Newell's Old Boys
- D0-0Lanus3 October 2026
- W1-0away to Platense20 September 2026
- D1-1Velez Sarsfield11 September 2026
- D1-1away to Rosario Central6 September 2026
- D0-0away to Estudiantes La Plata31 August 2026
Central Cordoba de Santiago
- D2-2Defensa Y Justicia18 September 2026
- L1-3away to Boca Juniors12 September 2026
- L0-1Independiente6 September 2026
- D0-0away to Talleres Cordoba30 August 2026
- L1-2away to Tigre24 August 2026
What these results say
- Newell's Old Boys went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Newell's Old Boys had two goals or fewer.
- Newell's Old Boys failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Central Cordoba de Santiago did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Central Cordoba de Santiago conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Newell's Old Boys | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 11 | 8 | +3 | 17 |
| 15 | Central Cordoba de Santiago | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Newell's Old Boys vs Central Cordoba de Santiago
- 5 April 2026Central Cordoba de Santiago 1–3 Newell's Old BoysLiga Profesional Argentina
- 9 August 2025Newell's Old Boys 1–1 Central Cordoba de SantiagoLiga Profesional Argentina
- 7 February 2025Central Cordoba de Santiago 2–0 Newell's Old BoysLiga Profesional Argentina
- 20 November 2024Newell's Old Boys 2–3 Central Cordoba de SantiagoLiga Profesional Argentina
- 21 August 2024Central Cordoba de Santiago 0–0 Newell's Old BoysCopa Argentina
- 26 January 2024Central Cordoba de Santiago 0–1 Newell's Old BoysCopa de la Liga Profesional
Leading scorers: Newell's Old Boys and Central Cordoba de Santiago
Newell's Old Boys
No player in Liga Profesional Argentina's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.
Central Cordoba de Santiago
- M. Santos7 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Newell's Old Boys carry a model rating of 6.59 against 6.47 for Central Cordoba de Santiago. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 1.27 goals for Newell's Old Boys and 0.74 for Central Cordoba de Santiago. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Newell's Old Boys rate 0.74 in attack and 1.24 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Central Cordoba de Santiago rate 0.65 and 1.40.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Newell's Old Boys a 0.4% chance of the title and Central Cordoba de Santiago 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,418 correct results out of 3,018 settled predictions (47%), with 294 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Newell's Old Boys the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Newell's Old Boys against 0.74 for Central Cordoba de Santiago. Newell's Old Boys's attack/defence rating is 0.74/1.24 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.65/1.4 for Central Cordoba de Santiago.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Newell's Old Boys at home · Central Cordoba de Santiago away
League matches only, Liga Profesional Argentina, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga Profesional Argentina matches this season: Newell's Old Boys 26, Central Cordoba de Santiago 26.
Newell's Old Boys score most often in the 76–90 minute window (14 goals); Central Cordoba de Santiago have let in 9 there.
Central Cordoba de Santiago score most often in the 46–60 minute window (5 goals); Newell's Old Boys have let in 8 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Newell's Old Boys
- at San Lorenzo25 Oct · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 31%
- vs Union Santa Fe1 Nov · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 40%
- at Instituto Cordoba8 Nov · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 25%
Central Cordoba de Santiago
- vs Velez Sarsfield25 Oct · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 29%
- at Platense1 Nov · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 29%
- vs Lanus8 Nov · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 30%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.