IMT Novi Beograd
vs
Radnicki NIS
Super Liga prediction
The model makes it 40% IMT Novi Beograd, 32% draw, 28% Radnicki NIS — fair odds of 2.50, 3.13 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (15%).
Expected goals: IMT Novi Beograd 1.11, Radnicki NIS 0.88.
Both teams to score: 40%. Over 2.5 goals: 32%, under 2.5: 68%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
IMT Novi Beograd
- W2-1away to FK Partizan2 August 2026
- W4-0Zemun25 July 2026
- W1-0away to Cukaricki19 July 2026
Radnicki NIS
- W1-0away to Zemun2 August 2026
- L0-2Cukaricki25 July 2026
- L1-2away to Železničar Pančevo17 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Super Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | IMT Novi Beograd | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | +6 | 9 |
| 11 | Radnicki NIS | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
IMT Novi Beograd carry a model rating of 6.47 against 6.41 for Radnicki NIS. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): IMT Novi Beograd W-W-W; Radnicki NIS L-L-W.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 1.11 goals for IMT Novi Beograd and 0.88 for Radnicki NIS. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
IMT Novi Beograd rate 0.40 in attack and 1.03 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Radnicki NIS rate 0.61 and 1.47.
That points to 32% for over two and a half goals and 40% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-0 (15%), 0-0 (14%), 1-1 (14%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives IMT Novi Beograd the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.11 expected goals for IMT Novi Beograd against 0.88 for Radnicki NIS. IMT Novi Beograd's attack/defence rating is 0.4/1.03 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.61/1.47 for Radnicki NIS.