Zemun
vs
Mladost Lucani
Super Liga prediction
The model makes it 13% Zemun, 27% draw, 60% Mladost Lucani — fair odds of 7.69, 3.70 and 1.67. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1 (18%).
Expected goals: Zemun 0.56, Mladost Lucani 1.52.
Both teams to score: 34%. Over 2.5 goals: 35%, under 2.5: 65%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Zemun
- L0-3away to Radnicki 19238 August 2026
- L0-1Radnicki NIS2 August 2026
- L0-4away to IMT Novi Beograd25 July 2026
- D2-2FK Partizan18 July 2026
Mladost Lucani
- D0-0away to Železničar Pančevo3 August 2026
- D0-0Novi Pazar26 July 2026
- D1-1away to Radnik Surdulica19 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Super Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Zemun | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 10 | -8 | 1 |
| 9 | Mladost Lucani | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
A clear gap in the ratings
Zemun carry a model rating of 5.64 against 6.42 for Mladost Lucani. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Zemun D-L-L-L; Mladost Lucani D-D-D.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 0.56 goals for Zemun and 1.52 for Mladost Lucani. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Zemun rate 0.29 in attack and 3.29 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Mladost Lucani rate 0.33 and 1.03.
That points to 35% for over two and a half goals and 34% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 0-1 (18%), 0-2 (14%), 0-0 (13%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Mladost Lucani the highest probability at 60%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.56 expected goals for Zemun against 1.52 for Mladost Lucani. Zemun's attack/defence rating is 0.29/3.29 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.33/1.03 for Mladost Lucani.