Regular Season - 5 · 16 August 2026, 19:00 UTC

FK Partizan vs Radnicki 1923 Super Liga prediction

Stadion Partizana, Belgrade

The model makes it 28% FK Partizan, 25% draw, 47% Radnicki 1923 — fair odds of 3.57, 4.00 and 2.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

Expected goals: FK Partizan 1.22, Radnicki 1923 1.66.

Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.

Model confidence: Medium.

Model insights

58%
Both teams to score
55%
Over 2.5 goals
45%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-1 12%1-2 9%0-1 9%

Form going into this match

FK Partizan

  • L1-2IMT Novi Beograd2 August 2026
  • W3-1away to Macva26 July 2026
  • D2-2away to Zemun18 July 2026

Radnicki 1923

  • W3-0Zemun8 August 2026
  • L0-3away to Cukaricki1 August 2026
  • L0-1away to Novi Pazar18 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.

Super Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5FK Partizan311165+14
10Radnicki 1923310234-13

Where the two sides stand. Full tables

Leading scorers

FK Partizan

  • M. Vukotić1 goals2 assists

Radnicki 1923

  • M. Cissé2 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

The two sides

FK Partizan carry a model rating of 6.08 against 6.43 for Radnicki 1923. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.

Recent form (most recent last): FK Partizan D-W-L; Radnicki 1923 L-L-W.

What the model expects

Under the hood the model expects 1.22 goals for FK Partizan and 1.66 for Radnicki 1923. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.

FK Partizan rate 0.59 in attack and 2.96 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Radnicki 1923 rate 0.40 and 1.09.

That points to 55% for over two and a half goals and 58% for both teams to score.

The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (9%), 0-1 (9%).

Where the model differs from the table

The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour FK Partizan, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Radnicki 1923 the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.22 expected goals for FK Partizan against 1.66 for Radnicki 1923. FK Partizan's attack/defence rating is 0.59/2.96 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.4/1.09 for Radnicki 1923.