5 September 2026, 23:00 UTC

Atletico San Luis vs Guadalajara Chivas Liga MX prediction & result

Estadio Libertad Financiera
Full time0 – 3

Final score: Atletico San Luis 0-3 Guadalajara Chivas.

Before kick-off the model made it 39% Atletico San Luis, 28% draw, 33% Guadalajara Chivas — fair odds of 2.56, 3.57 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Atletico San Luis at 39% here. Across 3,056 settled matches (as of 6 October 2026), 2,416 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

6'
⚽A. Sanchez (OG)
10'
⚽R. Marinassist: A. Sepulveda
🔁A. Duarteout: Lucas Esteves
30'
🔁A. Sanchezout: M. G. Lajud
33'
Johan Caicedo
45+3'
🔁J. Caicedoout: L. Flores
46'
61'
🔁H. Camberosout: R. Ledezma
61'
🔁A. Sepulvedaout: E. Alvarez
🔁M. Garciaout: S. Perez
71'
🔁D. Rodriguezout: R. Najera
71'
71'
🔁D. Aguirreout: K. Castaneda
71'
🔁S. Sandovalout: L. Rey
79'
🔁F. Gonzalezout: B. Gutierrez
80'
⚽R. Ledezmaassist: R. Marin

Match stats — Atletico San Luis vs Guadalajara Chivas

50%Possession50%
10Shots7
4On target3
3Corners2
0.72xG0.62

Goals against chances

Atletico San Luis0 from 0.72 xGless than the chances were worth
Guadalajara Chivas3 from 0.62 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Atletico San Luis 5-4-1
  • 1A. SanchezG
  • 2R. TorresD
  • 3Robson BambuD
  • 14M. GarciaD
  • 31E. AguilaD
  • 17A. DuarteD
  • 11D. RodriguezM
  • 13J. CaicedoM
  • 21O. MaciasM
  • 10S. Salles-LamongeM
  • 22R. LlorenteF
Substitutes
  • 25M. G. LajudG
  • 18A. CruzD
  • 16Lucas EstevesD
  • 30B. GalindoD
  • 26S. PerezM
  • 5R. MerazM
  • 7B. GaldamesM
  • 19S. MunozF
  • 8R. NajeraM
Coach: Raul Chabrand
Guadalajara Chivas 3-4-2-1
  • 1R. RangelG
  • 23D. AguirreD
  • 3D. Campillo Del CampoD
  • 7L. RomoD
  • 25R. AlvaradoM
  • 6O. GoveaM
  • 28F. GonzalezM
  • 14H. CamberosM
  • 30S. SandovalF
  • 17R. MarinF
  • 9A. SepulvedaF
Substitutes
  • 13O. WhalleyG
  • 37R. LedezmaD
  • 56A. ChavezD
  • 19K. CastanedaM
  • 10E. AlvarezF
  • 11B. GutierrezM
  • 16L. ReyD
  • 33J. CarrilloM
  • 18J. PerezM
Coach: Gabriel Milito

Form going into Atletico San Luis vs Guadalajara Chivas

Atletico San Luis

  • W3-1away to Monterrey31 August 2026

Guadalajara Chivas

  • D1-1away to CF Pachuca29 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Liga MX table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
13Atletico San Luis103341418-412
3Guadalajara Chivas105321710+718

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Leading scorers: Atletico San Luis and Guadalajara Chivas

Atletico San Luis

  • D. Rodríguez3 goals1 assist

Guadalajara Chivas

No player in Liga MX's leading scorers — 17 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.