Atletico San Luis
vs
Guadalajara Chivas
Liga MX prediction
The model makes it 33% Atletico San Luis, 27% draw, 40% Guadalajara Chivas — fair odds of 3.03, 3.70 and 2.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Atletico San Luis 1.28, Guadalajara Chivas 1.42.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Atletico San Luis
- L0-3away to Club America16 August 2026
- D0-0Club Tijuana1 August 2026
- D2-2away to Tigres UANL26 July 2026
- L2-3Cruz Azul18 July 2026
Guadalajara Chivas
- W1-0away to Santos Laguna17 August 2026
- D1-1away to Puebla1 August 2026
- W1-0FC Juarez25 July 2026
- L0-2Toluca19 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Atletico San Luis | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 2 |
| 10 | Guadalajara Chivas | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
The two sides
Atletico San Luis carry a model rating of 6.45 against 6.65 for Guadalajara Chivas. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Atletico San Luis L-D-D-L; Guadalajara Chivas L-W-D-W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.28 goals for Atletico San Luis and 1.42 for Guadalajara Chivas. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Atletico San Luis rate 0.61 in attack and 1.37 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Guadalajara Chivas rate 0.74 and 1.11.
That points to 51% for over two and a half goals and 55% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (9%), 1-2 (9%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 495 correct results out of 1026 settled predictions (48%), with 95 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Guadalajara Chivas the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Atletico San Luis against 1.42 for Guadalajara Chivas. Atletico San Luis's attack/defence rating is 0.61/1.37 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.74/1.11 for Guadalajara Chivas.