Tigres UANL vs Necaxa Liga MX prediction & result
Final score: Tigres UANL 1-1 Necaxa.
Before kick-off the model made it 45% Tigres UANL, 28% draw, 27% Necaxa — fair odds of 2.22, 3.57 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Tigres UANL at 45% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Tigres UANL vs Necaxa
Line-ups
- 1N. GuzmanG
- 14J. GarzaD
- 28JoaquimD
- 15A. FrancoD
- 26F. I. Ordonez DelgadoD
- 21R. MonrealM
- 34SimeoneM
- 23RomuloM
- 16D. LainezM
- 17R. AguirreF
- 11J. BrunettaF
- 25F. RodriguezG
- 33R. GuerreroD
- 184I. Aceves
- 5C. AraujoM
- 30D. A. Sanchez GuevaraF
- 200D. RamirezD
- 6J. VigonM
- 198I. GalvanM
- 19M. LainezM
- 12L. JimenezG
- 33R. MartinezD
- 5NavesD
- 3A. OliverosD
- 13O. GonzalezM
- 16P. PedrazaM
- 8L. FaravelliM
- 14M. ZaletaM
- 21M. EspindolaM
- 10J. RuizM
- 9J. CarranzaF
- 1C. AndradeG
- 4A. PenaD
- 20F. MendezD
- 11J. P. Torres PatinoM
- 17R. CortezM
- 6D. LeyvaM
- 7K. RoseroF
- 90J. ValenciaF
- 99E. RodriguezM
Form going into Tigres UANL vs Necaxa
Tigres UANL
- D0-0away to Santos Laguna30 August 2026
- W2-0Atlante FC22 August 2026
- L1-2away to Atlas16 August 2026
- L2-3away to Club Queretaro1 August 2026
- D2-2Atletico San Luis26 July 2026
Necaxa
- L1-3Cruz Azul29 August 2026
- D1-1away to Pumas UNAM24 August 2026
- L1-2Leon18 August 2026
- L1-3away to Toluca3 August 2026
- W2-1Monterrey26 July 2026
What these results say
- Tigres UANL failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Tigres UANL scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Necaxa scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Necaxa conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Necaxa.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Tigres UANL | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 15 | -2 | 13 |
| 17 | Necaxa | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 15 | 23 | -8 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Tigres UANL and Necaxa
Tigres UANL
GoalsAssists
- J. Brunetta64
Necaxa
GoalsAssists
- J. Carranza72
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.