Pumas UNAM
vs
Necaxa
Liga MX prediction
The model makes it 29% Pumas UNAM, 32% draw, 39% Necaxa — fair odds of 3.45, 3.13 and 2.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1 (14%).
Expected goals: Pumas UNAM 0.90, Necaxa 1.10.
Both teams to score: 40%. Over 2.5 goals: 32%, under 2.5: 68%.
Model confidence: Low.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Pumas UNAM
- W5-1away to FC Juarez1 August 2026
- W2-1away to Toluca22 July 2026
- L0-3CF Pachuca18 July 2026
Necaxa
- L1-3away to Toluca3 August 2026
- W2-1Monterrey26 July 2026
- W2-1Atlante FC17 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Pumas UNAM | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 6 |
| 8 | Necaxa | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Pumas UNAM
- Juninho3 goals
Necaxa
- J. Carranza3 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Pumas UNAM carry a model rating of 6.54 against 6.73 for Necaxa. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Pumas UNAM L-W-W; Necaxa W-W-L.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 0.90 goals for Pumas UNAM and 1.10 for Necaxa. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Pumas UNAM rate 0.48 in attack and 1.02 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Necaxa rate 0.77 and 0.99.
That points to 32% for over two and a half goals and 40% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 0-1 (14%), 0-0 (14%), 1-1 (14%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Pumas UNAM, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 302 correct results out of 627 settled predictions (48%), with 61 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Necaxa the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.9 expected goals for Pumas UNAM against 1.1 for Necaxa. Pumas UNAM's attack/defence rating is 0.48/1.02 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.77/0.99 for Necaxa.