Pumas UNAM vs Necaxa Liga MX prediction & result
Final score: Pumas UNAM 1-1 Necaxa.
Before kick-off the model made it 32% Pumas UNAM, 32% draw, 36% Necaxa — fair odds of 3.13, 3.13 and 2.78.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Necaxa at 36%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Pumas UNAM vs Necaxa
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1K. NavasG
- 7R. LopezD
- 6Nathan SilvaD
- 5R. DuarteD
- 12C. CalderonD
- 8A. CarrasquillaM
- 45P. ViteM
- 18V. ArteagaM
- 21U. AntunaF
- 31R. MoralesF
- 23JuninhoF
- 35P. LaraG
- 2P. BennevendoD
- 13P. MonroyD
- 34A. AzuajeD
- 199K. Carranza
- 15I. LunaM
- 20S. TrigosM
- 9G. MartinezF
- 22A. MedinaF
- 12L. JimenezG
- 5NavesD
- 4A. PenaD
- 3A. OliverosD
- 30R. MonrealM
- 21M. EspindolaM
- 6D. LeyvaM
- 8L. FaravelliM
- 88C. VargasM
- 9J. CarranzaF
- 13O. GonzalezF
- 1C. AndradeG
- 33R. MartinezD
- 15D. OchoaD
- 14M. ZaletaM
- 20F. MendezD
- 11J. P. Torres PatinoM
- 17R. CortezM
- 16P. PedrazaM
- 90J. ValenciaF
Form going into Pumas UNAM vs Necaxa
Pumas UNAM
All competitions we cover
- D0-0Club Queretaro16 August 2026
- W5-1away to FC Juarez1 August 2026
- W2-1away to Toluca22 July 2026
- L0-3CF Pachuca18 July 2026
Necaxa
All competitions we cover
- L1-2Leon18 August 2026
- L1-3away to Toluca3 August 2026
- W2-1Monterrey26 July 2026
- W2-1Atlante FC17 July 2026
What these results say
- Pumas UNAM conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Pumas UNAM had three goals or more.
- Necaxa scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Necaxa conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Necaxa had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Pumas UNAM | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 24 | 26 | -2 | 21 |
| 17 | Necaxa | 16 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 17 | 28 | -11 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Pumas UNAM vs Necaxa
- 7 March 2026Necaxa 0–1 Pumas UNAMLiga MX
- 11 August 2025Pumas UNAM 1–1 NecaxaLiga MX
- 12 January 2025Pumas UNAM 2–1 NecaxaLiga MX
- 14 September 2024Necaxa 2–0 Pumas UNAMLiga MX
- 1 February 2024Pumas UNAM 2–2 NecaxaLiga MX
- 28 October 2023Necaxa 1–0 Pumas UNAMLiga MX
Leading scorers: Pumas UNAM and Necaxa
Pumas UNAM
GoalsAssists
- Juninho91
- R. Morales54
Necaxa
GoalsAssists
- J. Carranza72
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Pumas UNAM and Necaxa drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Necaxa at 36% and given a draw 32%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: J. Carranza 76' for Necaxa, L. Herrera 88' for Pumas UNAM. On expected goals it finished 1.20–1.46.