Atletico San Luis vs CF Pachuca Liga MX prediction & result
Final score: Atletico San Luis 1-1 CF Pachuca.
Before kick-off the model made it 36% Atletico San Luis, 26% draw, 38% CF Pachuca — fair odds of 2.78, 3.85 and 2.63.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
CF Pachuca at 38%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Atletico San Luis vs CF Pachuca
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1A. SanchezG
- 30B. GalindoD
- 14M. GarciaD
- 31E. AguilaD
- 2R. TorresM
- 13J. CaicedoM
- 21O. MaciasM
- 17A. DuarteM
- 11D. RodriguezF
- 10S. Salles-LamongeF
- 99F. MoraF
- 25M. G. LajudG
- 18A. CruzD
- 16Lucas EstevesD
- 26S. PerezM
- 5R. MerazM
- 7B. GaldamesM
- 19S. MunozF
- 8R. NajeraM
- 22R. LlorenteM
- 25C. MorenoG
- 14C. SanchezD
- 4Eduardo BauermannD
- 2S. D. BarretoD
- 15F. VenegasD
- 16C. RiveraM
- 10E. MontielM
- 29KenedyM
- 26A. BautistaM
- 11O. IdrissiM
- 23S. RondonF
- 31J. EulogioG
- 6M. IsaisD
- 13J. BerlangaD
- 22A. MozoD
- 7R. PizarroM
- 30S. RodriguezM
- 217M. FavaF
- 9A. AlcarazM
- 21N. VallejoF
Form going into Atletico San Luis vs CF Pachuca
Atletico San Luis
All competitions we cover
- L0-3away to Club America16 August 2026
- D0-0Club Tijuana1 August 2026
- D2-2away to Tigres UANL26 July 2026
- L2-3Cruz Azul18 July 2026
CF Pachuca
All competitions we cover
- L2-3Puebla18 August 2026
- L0-1away to Leon2 August 2026
- L1-2Club Queretaro27 July 2026
- W3-0away to Pumas UNAM18 July 2026
What these results say
- Atletico San Luis did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Atletico San Luis conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Atletico San Luis had three goals or more.
- CF Pachuca failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- CF Pachuca scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- CF Pachuca conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Atletico San Luis | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 19 | 24 | -5 | 19 |
| 8 | CF Pachuca | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 29 | 20 | +9 | 22 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Atletico San Luis vs CF Pachuca
- 14 March 2026Atletico San Luis 1–1 CF PachucaLiga MX
- 27 September 2025CF Pachuca 2–1 Atletico San LuisLiga MX
- 21 April 2025Atletico San Luis 2–1 CF PachucaLiga MX
- 17 July 2024CF Pachuca 2–0 Atletico San LuisLiga MX
- 18 March 2024Atletico San Luis 2–1 CF PachucaLiga MX
- 29 August 2023CF Pachuca 0–2 Atletico San LuisLiga MX
Leading scorers: Atletico San Luis and CF Pachuca
Atletico San Luis
No player in Liga MX's leading scorers — 19 league goals as a side.
CF Pachuca
GoalsAssists
- S. Rondón162
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Atletico San Luis and CF Pachuca drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for CF Pachuca at 38% and given a draw 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: R. Najera 83' for Atletico San Luis, C. Moreno 90' for CF Pachuca. Sent off: Eduardo Bauermann (CF Pachuca) 33'. On expected goals it finished 2.71–0.99.