Hapoel Jerusalem
vs
Maccabi Haifa
Ligat Ha'al prediction
Our model says: Hapoel Jerusalem 1–2 Maccabi Haifa
The model makes it 27% Hapoel Jerusalem, 26% draw, 47% Maccabi Haifa — fair odds of 3.70, 3.85 and 2.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Hapoel Jerusalem 1.28, Maccabi Haifa 2.07.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 65%, under 2.5: 35%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Hapoel Jerusalem vs Maccabi Haifa
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Maccabi Haifa at 47% here. Across 2837 settled matches, 1308 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Hapoel Jerusalem vs Maccabi Haifa
Hapoel Jerusalem
- W4-2away to Maccabi Petah Tikva19 September 2026
- D2-2away to Ironi Tiberias15 September 2026
- W4-2Ironi Kiryat Shmona5 September 2026
- L0-1away to Hapoel Petah Tikva29 August 2026
- L2-5Maccabi Tel Aviv23 August 2026
Maccabi Haifa
- W3-2Ironi Tiberias19 September 2026
- W4-0away to Ironi Kiryat Shmona14 September 2026
- W2-1Hapoel Petah Tikva5 September 2026
- L1-3away to Maccabi Tel Aviv31 August 2026
- W2-1Hapoel Ramat Gan22 August 2026
What these results say
- Hapoel Jerusalem conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Hapoel Jerusalem scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Hapoel Jerusalem had three goals or more.
- Maccabi Haifa scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Maccabi Haifa had three goals or more.
- Maccabi Haifa won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligat Ha'al table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Hapoel Jerusalem | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 7 |
| 2 | Maccabi Haifa | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 7 | +5 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Hapoel Jerusalem and Maccabi Haifa
Hapoel Jerusalem
- A. Idoko4 goals1 assists
- N. Vrasana4 goals
Maccabi Haifa
- Bruninho3 goals2 assists
- A. Novaković3 goals
- E. Azoulay2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Hapoel Jerusalem carry a model rating of 6.23 against 6.53 for Maccabi Haifa. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.28 goals for Hapoel Jerusalem and 2.07 for Maccabi Haifa. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Hapoel Jerusalem rate 0.52 in attack and 1.81 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Maccabi Haifa rate 0.80 and 1.53.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1326 correct results out of 2837 settled predictions (47%), with 271 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Maccabi Haifa the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Hapoel Jerusalem against 2.07 for Maccabi Haifa. Hapoel Jerusalem's attack/defence rating is 0.52/1.81 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.8/1.53 for Maccabi Haifa.