Hapoel Jerusalem vs Maccabi Haifa Ligat Ha'al prediction & result
Final score: Hapoel Jerusalem 1-4 Maccabi Haifa.
Before kick-off the model made it 24% Hapoel Jerusalem, 24% draw, 52% Maccabi Haifa — fair odds of 4.17, 4.17 and 1.92.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Israeli Ligat Ha'al predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Maccabi Haifa at 52%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Hapoel Jerusalem vs Maccabi Haifa
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 55N. ZamirG
- 70S. ZuberuD
- 16O. AgvadishD
- 3N. MalmudD
- 22T. HaimovichD
- 18L. MizrachiD
- 19N. VrasanaM
- 8I. MadmonM
- 91C. TiéhiM
- 25A. IdokoM
- 9E. ChilufyaF
- 14O. AbuhavM
- 10V. DamaşcanF
- 33I. DaphahF
- 11Y. DistalfeldM
- 1B. Gordin AnbaryG
- 20O. NadirD
- 21Hilay Sharabi MelmanD
- 7O. AlmagorF
- 26I. CohenD
- 55O. GlazerG
- 25J. BatailleD
- 21N. LonwijkD
- 35N. SztejfmanD
- 16K. SaiefD
- 19E. AzoulayM
- 4A. MuhammadM
- 30Pedro BrazãoM
- 10BruninhoM
- 11K. GorréM
- 9A. NovakovićF
- 29Iyad KhalailiM
- 8Y. LeviM
- 18G. MelamedF
- 7Y. MordechaiM
- 1yaacov omer on nirG
- 36N. RatnerD
- 66TsunamiD
- 26S. KaniM
- 44PedrãoD
Form going into Hapoel Jerusalem vs Maccabi Haifa
Hapoel Jerusalem
All competitions we cover
- W4-2away to Maccabi Petah Tikva19 September 2026
- D2-2away to Ironi Tiberias15 September 2026
- W4-2Ironi Kiryat Shmona5 September 2026
- L0-1away to Hapoel Petah Tikva29 August 2026
Maccabi Haifa
All competitions we cover
- W3-2Ironi Tiberias19 September 2026
- W4-0away to Ironi Kiryat Shmona14 September 2026
- W2-1Hapoel Petah Tikva5 September 2026
- L1-3away to Maccabi Tel Aviv31 August 2026
What these results say
- Hapoel Jerusalem conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Hapoel Jerusalem scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Hapoel Jerusalem had three goals or more.
- Maccabi Haifa scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Maccabi Haifa had three goals or more.
- Maccabi Haifa won 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ligat Ha'al table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Hapoel Jerusalem | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 16 | 23 | -7 | 9 |
| 5 | Maccabi Haifa | 10 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 21 | 20 | +1 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Hapoel Jerusalem vs Maccabi Haifa
- 17 August 2026Maccabi Haifa 0–1 Hapoel JerusalemToto Cup Ligat Al
- 7 February 2026Hapoel Jerusalem 1–1 Maccabi HaifaLigat Ha'al
- 1 November 2025Maccabi Haifa 2–2 Hapoel JerusalemLigat Ha'al
- 17 February 2025Maccabi Haifa 3–3 Hapoel JerusalemLigat Ha'al
- 8 November 2024Hapoel Jerusalem 0–0 Maccabi HaifaLigat Ha'al
Leading scorers: Hapoel Jerusalem and Maccabi Haifa
Hapoel Jerusalem
GoalsAssists
- N. Vrasana50
- A. Idoko42
Maccabi Haifa
GoalsAssists
- Bruninho45
- A. Novaković41
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Maccabi Haifa won 4–1 at Hapoel Jerusalem. The model had made a win for Maccabi Haifa its most likely outcome, at 52%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: andrew idoko 26' for Hapoel Jerusalem, Andrija Novakovich 40' for Maccabi Haifa, Pedro Brazão 44' for Maccabi Haifa, Kenji Gorre 67' for Maccabi Haifa, Guy Melamed 77' for Maccabi Haifa. On expected goals it finished 1.18–3.31.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Hapoel Jerusalem these chances to finish in the bottom three: 6.9% after a win, 12.2% after a draw, 16.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure about where it was, at 16.0%.
For Maccabi Haifa the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 68.9% going in: 73.5% after a win, 64.6% after a draw, 62.6% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 73.5%, 4.6 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Ligat Ha'al season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Hapoel Jerusalem v Maccabi Haifa has moved
First published on 26 Sep at 27% / 26% / 47% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 24% / 24% / 52%: the biggest move is Maccabi Haifa's chance of winning, up 5 points.
- Hapoel Jerusalem win24%▼ −3
- Draw24%▼ −2
- Maccabi Haifa win52%▲ +5
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.