El Mokawloon
vs
Masr
Premier League prediction
Our model says: El Mokawloon 1–0 Masr
The model makes it 36% El Mokawloon, 31% draw, 33% Masr — fair odds of 2.78, 3.23 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: El Mokawloon 1.14, Masr 1.06.
Both teams to score: 45%. Over 2.5 goals: 38%, under 2.5: 62%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: El Mokawloon and Masr are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Key facts
- El Mokawloon are 7th on 7 points from 5 games; Masr are 10th on 7 points from 5 games — Premier League.
- El Mokawloon are unbeaten in 3, most recently a 2-0 win away to Wadi Degla.
- Masr have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Olympic El Qanah.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 1 win each, 4 draws; the most recent, 6 April 2026, ended Masr 0–0 El Mokawloon.
All Egyptian Premier League predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: El Mokawloon vs Masr
Has the model earned this number?
It puts El Mokawloon at 36% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into El Mokawloon vs Masr
El Mokawloon
- W2-0away to Wadi Degla15 September 2026
- D1-1Al Ahly9 September 2026
- W1-0away to El Gouna FC2 September 2026
- L2-3Al Masry27 August 2026
- L0-1away to El Geish22 August 2026
Masr
- W2-1Olympic El Qanah17 September 2026
- L1-2away to Enppi9 September 2026
- W1-0away to El Geish1 September 2026
- L0-2Al Ahly28 August 2026
- D0-0away to Wadi Degla21 August 2026
What these results say
- El Mokawloon scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for El Mokawloon had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | El Mokawloon | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 7 |
| 10 | Masr | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: El Mokawloon vs Masr
- 6 April 2026Masr 0–0 El MokawloonPremier League
- 30 March 2026El Mokawloon 1–1 MasrLeague Cup
- 26 March 2026Masr 0–0 El MokawloonLeague Cup
- 9 August 2025El Mokawloon 0–2 MasrPremier League
- 3 May 2024Masr 0–1 El MokawloonPremier League
- 22 October 2023El Mokawloon 3–3 MasrPremier League
Leading scorers: El Mokawloon and Masr
El Mokawloon
- Mostafa Gamal2 goals
Masr
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
El Mokawloon carry a model rating of 6.39 against 6.37 for Masr. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.14 goals for El Mokawloon and 1.06 for Masr. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
El Mokawloon rate 0.62 in attack and 1.57 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Masr rate 0.64 and 1.66.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives El Mokawloon the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.14 expected goals for El Mokawloon against 1.06 for Masr. El Mokawloon's attack/defence rating is 0.62/1.57 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.64/1.66 for Masr.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
El Mokawloon at home · Masr away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: El Mokawloon 5, Masr 5.
El Mokawloon score most often in the 31–45 minute window (3 goals); Masr have let in 2 there.
Masr score most often in the 46–60 minute window (2 goals); El Mokawloon have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
El Mokawloon
- at Enppi19 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 36%
- at Zamalek SC28 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 24%
- vs Olympic El Qanah25 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 36%
- at Ceramica Cleopatra8 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 27%
- vs Future FC16 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 37%
Masr
- vs Future FC21 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 37%
- at Ceramica Cleopatra31 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 27%
- vs Abu Qair Semad24 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 44%
- at Asyut Petrol10 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 40%
- vs Petrojet14 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 38%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.