Aarhus vs Brondby Superliga prediction & result
Final score: Aarhus 1-1 Brondby.
Before kick-off the model made it 49% Aarhus, 25% draw, 26% Brondby — fair odds of 2.04, 4.00 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Aarhus at 49% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Aarhus vs Brondby
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Jesper HansenG
- 26Jacob AndersenD
- 5Frederik TingagerD
- 19Eric KahlD
- 11Gift LinksM
- 4Magnus KnudsenM
- 10Kristian ArnstadM
- 39Frederik EmmeryM
- 8Sebastian JørgensenF
- 31Tobias BechF
- 23Mikael AndersonF
- 16Jens JønssonM
- 28James BogereF
- 21Mads HedenstadG
- 40Jonas Jensen-AbbewD
- 44Mouhammade CamaraD
- 22Oskar HaugstrupM
- 29Rasmus CarstensenD
- 20Tómas Óli KristjánssonF
- 27Stefen TchamcheF
- 50William Sonne-SchmidtG
- 2Oliver VilladsenD
- 30Jordi VanlerbergheD
- 4Luis BinksD
- 27Mats KöhlertD
- 99Bartosz SliszM
- 18Max EjdumM
- 21Marcus YounisM
- 29Mads FrøkjærM
- 11Filip BundgaardM
- 9Patrick MortensenF
- 24Marko DivkovićD
- 42Mathias JensenM
- 51Oskar FengerF
- 38Jacob AmbaekF
- 13Gavin BeaversG
- 32Frederik AlvesD
- 37Raphael CanutD
- 10Daniel WassM
- 19Sho FukudaF
Form going into Aarhus vs Brondby
Aarhus
- L1-4Lech Poznan21 July 2026
Brondby
No earlier matches on record this season.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Superliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Aarhus | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 15 | -6 | 4 |
| 5 | Brondby | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Aarhus vs Brondby
- 25 July 2026Aarhus 1–1 BrondbySuperliga
- 10 May 2026Brondby 0–2 AarhusSuperliga
- 22 March 2026Aarhus 0–0 BrondbySuperliga
- 19 October 2025Brondby 3–3 AarhusSuperliga
- 21 September 2025Aarhus 1–0 BrondbySuperliga
- 25 May 2025Aarhus 2–3 BrondbySuperliga
Leading scorers: Aarhus and Brondby
Aarhus
- J. Serra3 goals
Brondby
- M. Frøkjær-Jensen2 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.