Aarhus vs Brondby Superliga prediction & result
Final score: Aarhus 1-1 Brondby.
Before kick-off the model made it 49% Aarhus, 25% draw, 26% Brondby — fair odds of 2.04, 4.00 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Aarhus at 49% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Aarhus vs Brondby
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Jesper HansenG
- 26Jacob AndersenD
- 5Frederik TingagerD
- 19Eric KahlD
- 11Gift LinksM
- 4Magnus KnudsenM
- 10Kristian ArnstadM
- 39Frederik EmmeryM
- 8Sebastian JørgensenF
- 31Tobias BechF
- 23Mikael AndersonF
- 16Jens JønssonM
- 28James BogereF
- 21Mads HedenstadG
- 40Jonas Jensen-AbbewD
- 44Mouhammade CamaraD
- 22Oskar HaugstrupM
- 29Rasmus CarstensenD
- 20Tómas Óli KristjánssonF
- 27Stefen TchamcheF
- 50William Sonne-SchmidtG
- 2Oliver VilladsenD
- 30Jordi VanlerbergheD
- 4Luis BinksD
- 27Mats KöhlertD
- 99Bartosz SliszM
- 18Max EjdumM
- 21Marcus YounisM
- 29Mads FrøkjærM
- 11Filip BundgaardM
- 9Patrick MortensenF
- 24Marko DivkovićD
- 42Mathias JensenM
- 51Oskar FengerF
- 38Jacob AmbaekF
- 13Gavin BeaversG
- 32Frederik AlvesD
- 37Raphael CanutD
- 10Daniel WassM
- 19Sho FukudaF
Form going into Aarhus vs Brondby
Aarhus
All competitions we cover
- L1-4Lech Poznan21 July 2026
Brondby
No earlier matches on record this season.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Superliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Aarhus | 12 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 17 | 19 | -2 | 12 |
| 5 | Brondby | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 21 | 20 | +1 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Aarhus vs Brondby
- 10 May 2026Brondby 0–2 AarhusSuperliga
- 22 March 2026Aarhus 0–0 BrondbySuperliga
- 19 October 2025Brondby 3–3 AarhusSuperliga
- 21 September 2025Aarhus 1–0 BrondbySuperliga
- 25 May 2025Aarhus 2–3 BrondbySuperliga
Leading scorers: Aarhus and Brondby
Aarhus
GoalsAssists
- J. Serra50
- C. McCowatt32
Brondby
GoalsAssists
- O. Hyseni43
- M. Frøkjær-Jensen41
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Aarhus and Brondby drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Aarhus at 49% and given a draw 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: B. Slisz 53' for Brondby, K. Arnstad (penalty) 84' for Aarhus. On expected goals it finished 1.62–0.90.