Dunkerque
vs
Grenoble
The model makes it 13% Dunkerque, 14% draw, 73% Grenoble — fair odds of 7.69, 7.14 and 1.37. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-3 (8%).
Expected goals: Dunkerque 1.46, Grenoble 3.32.
Both teams to score: 74%. Over 2.5 goals: 85%, under 2.5: 15%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Ligue 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Dunkerque | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 53 | 45 | +8 | 43 |
| 12 | Grenoble | 34 | 8 | 15 | 11 | 33 | 39 | -6 | 39 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Dunkerque vs Grenoble
- 2 May 2026Dunkerque 0–1 GrenobleLigue 2
- 13 September 2025Grenoble 1–0 DunkerqueLigue 2
- 18 April 2025Dunkerque 2–0 GrenobleLigue 2
- 8 November 2024Grenoble 0–1 DunkerqueLigue 2
- 13 January 2024Grenoble 2–2 DunkerqueLigue 2
- 16 September 2023Dunkerque 0–0 GrenobleLigue 2
A clear gap in the ratings
Dunkerque carry a model rating of 6.56 against 7.12 for Grenoble. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.46 goals for Dunkerque and 3.32 for Grenoble. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Dunkerque rate 0.84 in attack and 1.54 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Grenoble rate 1.54 and 0.92.
That points to 85% for over two and a half goals and 74% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-3 (8%), 1-2 (7%), 1-4 (6%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Dunkerque, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 207 correct results out of 443 settled predictions (47%), with 42 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Grenoble the highest probability at 73%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Dunkerque against 3.32 for Grenoble. Dunkerque's attack/defence rating is 0.84/1.54 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.54/0.92 for Grenoble.