8 August 2026, 18:45 UTC

Metz vs Guingamp Ligue 2 prediction & result

Stade Saint-Symphorien, Metz
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Metz 2-1 Guingamp.

Before kick-off the model made it 44% Metz, 30% draw, 26% Guingamp — fair odds of 2.27, 3.33 and 3.85.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Metz at 44%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Metz97%Draw3%Guingamp0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Jessy Deminguet
19'
⚽Pape Moussa Fall (pen)
30'
51'
⚽A. Demouchyassist: A. Hemia
54'
Albin Demouchy
57'
🔁F. Sanchez Da Silvaout: T. Ducrocq
⚽P. M. Fallassist: M. Colin
58'
⚽G. Abuashviliassist: J. Deminguet
60'
🔁B. Munongoout: H. Kadamani
65'
66'
🔁A. Hemiaout: J. Chamakh
66'
🔁T. Ahileout: S. Ben Brahim
66'
🔁J. Diangangaout: D. Gomis
74'
🔁J. Matumonaout: V. Muntu Wa Mungu
🔁N. Mbalaout: N. Mendy
79'
🔁P. M. Fallout: H. Diallo
79'
🔁G. Abuashviliout: M. Bokele Mputu
82'
Idris Mohamed
90+2'

Match stats — Metz vs Guingamp

41%Possession59%
15Shots12
7On target7
5Corners3

Line-ups

Metz 5-3-2
  • 1J. FischerG
  • 22N. MbalaD
  • 2M. ColinD
  • 42C. DevenishD
  • 5J. RuizD
  • 3F. MiguelD
  • 98I. MohamedM
  • 18B. MunongoM
  • 9G. AbuashviliM
  • 8J. DeminguetF
  • 11P. M. FallF
Substitutes
  • 61P. SyG
  • 6N. MendyM
  • 20H. DialloF
  • 7I. SaneF
  • 19M. Bokele MputuF
  • 32A. MarchalD
  • 21J. PandoreF
  • 25C. MelieresD
  • 38H. KadamaniM
Coach: Luc Holtz
Guingamp 4-4-2
  • 16A. OrtolaG
  • 3J. MatumonaD
  • 36A. DemouchyD
  • 24J. DiangangaD
  • 2E. KoffiD
  • 11T. AverlantM
  • 4D. LouiserreM
  • 21T. AhileM
  • 8F. Sanchez Da SilvaM
  • 10A. HemiaF
  • 18S. KieltF
Substitutes
  • 1T. Bartouche-SelbonneG
  • 39V. Muntu Wa Mungu
  • 23J. ChamakhF
  • 38E. AucanM
  • 32I. DiakiteM
  • 20S. Ben BrahimM
  • 7D. GomisD
  • 25T. DucrocqM
  • 31J. MatondoM
Coach: Sylvain Ripoll

Ligue 2 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7Metz124532019+117
11Guingamp124261618-214

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Metz vs Guingamp

  • 15 February 2025Guingamp 0–3 MetzLigue 2
  • 25 October 2024Metz 1–0 GuingampLigue 2
  • 20 May 2023Guingamp 1–1 MetzLigue 2
  • 12 September 2022Metz 3–6 GuingampLigue 2
  • 24 February 2018Guingamp 2–2 MetzLigue 1
  • 5 August 2017Metz 1–3 GuingampLigue 1

Leading scorers: Metz and Guingamp

Metz

GoalsAssists

  • P. Fall81
  • J. Deminguet33

Guingamp

GoalsAssists

  • B. Bokangu40

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Metz beat Guingamp 2–1. The model had made a win for Metz its most likely outcome, at 44%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: A. Demouchy 51' for Guingamp, P. M. Fall 58' for Metz, G. Abuashvili 60' for Metz.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.