Metz
vs
Guingamp
The model makes it 44% Metz, 30% draw, 26% Guingamp — fair odds of 2.27, 3.33 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (14%).
Expected goals: Metz 1.27, Guingamp 0.90.
Both teams to score: 43%. Over 2.5 goals: 37%, under 2.5: 63%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Head-to-head: Metz vs Guingamp
- 15 February 2025Guingamp 0–3 MetzLigue 2
- 25 October 2024Metz 1–0 GuingampLigue 2
- 20 May 2023Guingamp 1–1 MetzLigue 2
- 12 September 2022Metz 3–6 GuingampLigue 2
- 24 February 2018Guingamp 2–2 MetzLigue 1
- 5 August 2017Metz 1–3 GuingampLigue 1
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Metz carry a model rating of 6.58 against 6.62 for Guingamp. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.27 goals for Metz and 0.90 for Guingamp. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Metz rate 0.72 in attack and 1.23 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Guingamp rate 0.52 and 0.93.
That points to 37% for over two and a half goals and 43% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-0 (14%), 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (12%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 207 correct results out of 443 settled predictions (47%), with 42 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Metz the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Metz against 0.9 for Guingamp. Metz's attack/defence rating is 0.72/1.23 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.52/0.93 for Guingamp.