8 August 2026, 18:45 UTC

Montpellier vs Dijon Ligue 2 prediction & result

Stade de la Mosson, Montpellier
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Montpellier 1-1 Dijon.

Before kick-off the model made it 78% Montpellier, 14% draw, 8% Dijon — fair odds of 1.28, 7.14 and 12.50.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Montpellier at 78%: of 501 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.5% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Montpellier8%Draw90%Dijon2%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Nordan Mukiele
27'
43'
Brandon Ndezi
Daylam Meddah
63'
🔁N. Mukieleout: Y. Issoufou
64'
🔁N. El Hannachout: G. Ayem
64'
Théo Chennahi
65'
66'
🔁P. Bellonout: A. Lembezat
66'
🔁Y. Barkaout: T. Dong
72'
🔁B. Ndeziout: S. Chouchane
73'
🔁M. Barretoout: Y. Aka
76'
Adel Lembezat
🔁D. Meddahout: H. Abderrebi
80'
82'
🔁A. Ntamackout: J. Tavares
🔁M. Camaraout: L. Megnan-Pave
85'
89'
Lenny Lacroix
⚽Y. Mouangaassist: T. Sainte-Luce
90'
90'
⚽A. Lembezat

Match stats — Montpellier vs Dijon

55%Possession45%
22Shots10
5On target4
4Corners0

Line-ups

Montpellier 4-3-3
  • 31S. NgapandouetnbuG
  • 3N. El HannachD
  • 15J. LaporteD
  • 6Y. MouangaD
  • 17T. Sainte-LuceD
  • 44T. ChennahiM
  • 27D. MeddahM
  • 40N. Vidal-CartouxM
  • 18N. PaysF
  • 11M. CamaraF
  • 19N. MukieleF
Substitutes
  • 50V. DzodicG
  • 7Y. IssoufouF
  • 90G. AyemM
  • 23D. BenlahlouF
  • 35M. ChambonD
  • 9L. Megnan-PaveF
  • 32H. AbderrebiM
Coach: Zoumana Camara
Dijon 4-4-2
  • 1I. Marie-RoseG
  • 7B. HamadaD
  • 23L. LacroixD
  • 5Q. BernardD
  • 31M. FatyD
  • 14J. MarieM
  • 4M. BarretoM
  • 18B. NdeziM
  • 8P. BellonM
  • 29A. NtamackF
  • 10Y. BarkaF
Substitutes
  • 20H. Vargas-RiosM
  • 93I. BouleghchaD
  • 21S. ChouchaneM
  • 42Y. AkaD
  • 11J. TavaresF
  • 6W. DioufD
  • 17A. LembezatM
  • 9T. DongF
Coach: Baptiste Ridira

Ligue 2 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Montpellier12732189+924
6Dijon125342119+218

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Montpellier vs Dijon

  • 7 February 2021Montpellier 4–2 DijonLigue 1
  • 27 September 2020Dijon 2–2 MontpellierLigue 1
  • 25 January 2020Montpellier 2–1 DijonLigue 1
  • 4 December 2019Dijon 2–2 MontpellierLigue 1
  • 13 January 2019Dijon 1–1 MontpellierLigue 1
  • 11 August 2018Montpellier 1–2 DijonLigue 1

Leading scorers: Montpellier and Dijon

Montpellier

GoalsAssists

  • N. Pays52
  • Lacine Megnan-Pave42

Dijon

GoalsAssists

  • Júlio Tavares51
  • Y. Barka40

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Montpellier and Dijon drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Montpellier at 78% and given a draw 14%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 7 matches like this one. The goals: Y. Mouanga 90' for Montpellier, A. Lembezat 90' for Dijon.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.