Montpellier
vs
Dijon
The model makes it 78% Montpellier, 14% draw, 8% Dijon — fair odds of 1.28, 7.14 and 12.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (10%).
Expected goals: Montpellier 2.90, Dijon 0.87.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 72%, under 2.5: 28%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Head-to-head: Montpellier vs Dijon
- 7 February 2021Montpellier 4–2 DijonLigue 1
- 27 September 2020Dijon 2–2 MontpellierLigue 1
- 25 January 2020Montpellier 2–1 DijonLigue 1
- 4 December 2019Dijon 2–2 MontpellierLigue 1
- 13 January 2019Dijon 1–1 MontpellierLigue 1
- 11 August 2018Montpellier 1–2 DijonLigue 1
The two sides
Montpellier carry a model rating of 7.1 against 6.64 for Dijon. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.90 goals for Montpellier and 0.87 for Dijon. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Montpellier rate 1.05 in attack and 0.66 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Dijon rate 0.94 and 1.46.
That points to 72% for over two and a half goals and 55% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-0 (10%), 3-0 (9%), 2-1 (8%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 207 correct results out of 443 settled predictions (47%), with 42 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Montpellier the highest probability at 78%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.9 expected goals for Montpellier against 0.87 for Dijon. Montpellier's attack/defence rating is 1.05/0.66 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.94/1.46 for Dijon.