Chongqing Tongliang Long
vs
Qingdao Jonoon
Super League prediction
Our model says: Chongqing Tongliang Long 1–0 Qingdao Jonoon
The model makes it 48% Chongqing Tongliang Long, 27% draw, 25% Qingdao Jonoon — fair odds of 2.08, 3.70 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Chongqing Tongliang Long 1.62, Qingdao Jonoon 1.02.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Chongqing Tongliang Long are 9th on 32 points from 27 games; Qingdao Jonoon are bottom on 14 points from 27 games — Super League.
- Chongqing Tongliang Long have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Shandong Luneng.
- Qingdao Jonoon have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat at home to Beijing Guoan.
More Chinese Super League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Qingdao Jonoon
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Chongqing Tongliang Long at 48% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Qingdao Jonoon
Chongqing Tongliang Long
- D1-1Shandong Luneng11 October 2026
- L1-3Shanghai Shenhua6 September 2026
- D1-1away to Henan Jianye29 August 2026
- L0-1Dalian Zhixing23 August 2026
- D0-0away to Qingdao Youth Island14 August 2026
Qingdao Jonoon
- L0-3Beijing Guoan9 October 2026
- L1-2away to Dalian Zhixing5 September 2026
- L1-5Wuhan Three Towns29 August 2026
- L1-2away to SHANGHAI SIPG23 August 2026
- L1-3away to Shandong Luneng14 August 2026
What these results say
- Chongqing Tongliang Long did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Chongqing Tongliang Long conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Chongqing Tongliang Long had two goals or fewer.
- Qingdao Jonoon did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Qingdao Jonoon conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Qingdao Jonoon had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Chongqing Tongliang Long | 27 | 7 | 11 | 9 | 28 | 33 | -5 | 32 |
| 16 | Qingdao Jonoon | 27 | 6 | 3 | 18 | 34 | 56 | -22 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Qingdao Jonoon
- 24 May 2026Qingdao Jonoon 0–1 Chongqing Tongliang LongSuper League
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Chongqing Tongliang Long carry a model rating of 6.19 against 6.06 for Qingdao Jonoon. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.62 goals for Chongqing Tongliang Long and 1.02 for Qingdao Jonoon. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Chongqing Tongliang Long rate 0.38 in attack and 1.54 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Qingdao Jonoon rate 0.46 and 2.25.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Chongqing Tongliang Long the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Chongqing Tongliang Long against 1.02 for Qingdao Jonoon. Chongqing Tongliang Long's attack/defence rating is 0.38/1.54 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.46/2.25 for Qingdao Jonoon.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Chongqing Tongliang Long at home · Qingdao Jonoon away
League matches only, Super League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Super League matches this season: Chongqing Tongliang Long 27, Qingdao Jonoon 27.
Chongqing Tongliang Long score most often in the 46–60 minute window (7 goals); Qingdao Jonoon have let in 12 there.
Qingdao Jonoon score most often in the 76–90 minute window (8 goals); Chongqing Tongliang Long have let in 7 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
Next match, by difficulty
Chongqing Tongliang Long
- at Beijing Guoan8 Nov · Super Leaguewin 16%
Qingdao Jonoon
- vs Sichuan Jiuniu8 Nov · Super Leaguewin 39%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.