Chengdu Better City
vs
Dalian Zhixing
Super League prediction
Our model says: Chengdu Better City 2–1 Dalian Zhixing
The model makes it 50% Chengdu Better City, 25% draw, 25% Dalian Zhixing — fair odds of 2.00, 4.00 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Chengdu Better City 1.84, Dalian Zhixing 1.14.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: High.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Chengdu Better City are top on 52 points from 27 games; Dalian Zhixing are 2nd on 43 points from 27 games — Super League.
- Chengdu Better City have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Tianjin Teda.
- Dalian Zhixing are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 4-0 win away to Qingdao Youth Island.
- Last 3 meetings: Chengdu Better City 2 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 23 May 2026, ended Dalian Zhixing 2–0 Chengdu Better City.
More Chinese Super League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Chengdu Better City vs Dalian Zhixing
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Chengdu Better City at 50% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Chengdu Better City vs Dalian Zhixing
Chengdu Better City
- L0-1Tianjin Teda10 October 2026
- D0-0away to Henan Jianye6 September 2026
- W2-1Shenyang Urban29 August 2026
- L4-5Shanghai Shenhua22 August 2026
- W3-2away to Hangzhou Greentown15 August 2026
Dalian Zhixing
- W4-0away to Qingdao Youth Island11 October 2026
- W2-1Qingdao Jonoon5 September 2026
- D1-1Beijing Guoan28 August 2026
- W1-0away to Chongqing Tongliang Long23 August 2026
- D1-1away to SHANGHAI SIPG19 August 2026
What these results say
- Chengdu Better City conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Dalian Zhixing went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Dalian Zhixing scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chengdu Better City | 27 | 15 | 7 | 5 | 51 | 31 | +20 | 52 |
| 2 | Dalian Zhixing | 27 | 13 | 4 | 10 | 42 | 42 | 0 | 43 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Dalian Zhixing
Chance to finish in the top four · 94% today
From our Super League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Chengdu Better City vs Dalian Zhixing
- 23 May 2026Dalian Zhixing 2–0 Chengdu Better CitySuper League
- 8 August 2025Dalian Zhixing 0–2 Chengdu Better CitySuper League
- 6 April 2025Chengdu Better City 2–0 Dalian ZhixingSuper League
Leading scorers: Chengdu Better City and Dalian Zhixing
Chengdu Better City
GoalsAssists
- Felipe173
- Wellington Silva96
Dalian Zhixing
GoalsAssists
- F. Acheampong114
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Chengdu Better City carry a model rating of 6.4 against 6.29 for Dalian Zhixing. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.84 goals for Chengdu Better City and 1.14 for Dalian Zhixing. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Chengdu Better City rate 0.59 in attack and 1.47 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Dalian Zhixing rate 0.54 and 1.65.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Chengdu Better City a 100% chance of the title and Dalian Zhixing 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Chengdu Better City the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.84 expected goals for Chengdu Better City against 1.14 for Dalian Zhixing. Chengdu Better City's attack/defence rating is 0.59/1.47 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.54/1.65 for Dalian Zhixing.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Chengdu Better City at home · Dalian Zhixing away
League matches only, Super League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Super League matches this season: Chengdu Better City 27, Dalian Zhixing 27.
Chengdu Better City score most often in the 76–90 minute window (21 goals); Dalian Zhixing have let in 8 there.
Dalian Zhixing score most often in the 76–90 minute window (12 goals); Chengdu Better City have let in 8 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
Next match, by difficulty
Chengdu Better City
- at Shandong Luneng8 Nov · Super Leaguewin 34%
Dalian Zhixing
- vs Tianjin Teda8 Nov · Super Leaguewin 40%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.