Henan Jianye
vs
Beijing Guoan
Super League prediction
Our model says: Henan Jianye 1–2 Beijing Guoan
The model makes it 32% Henan Jianye, 26% draw, 42% Beijing Guoan — fair odds of 3.13, 3.85 and 2.38. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Henan Jianye 1.39, Beijing Guoan 1.66.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Edge to Beijing Guoan: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Henan Jianye are 13th on 28 points from 27 games; Beijing Guoan are 3rd on 41 points from 27 games — Super League.
- Henan Jianye are unbeaten in their last 5 games (0 won), most recently a 2-2 draw away to Sichuan Jiuniu.
- Beijing Guoan are unbeaten in their last 5 games (2 won), most recently a 3-0 win away to Qingdao Jonoon.
- Last 6 meetings: Henan Jianye 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 23 May 2026, ended Beijing Guoan 1–2 Henan Jianye.
More Chinese Super League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Henan Jianye vs Beijing Guoan
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Beijing Guoan at 42% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Henan Jianye vs Beijing Guoan
Henan Jianye
- D2-2away to Sichuan Jiuniu9 October 2026
- D1-1away to Wuhan Three Towns12 September 2026
- D0-0Chengdu Better City6 September 2026
- D1-1Chongqing Tongliang Long29 August 2026
- D4-4away to Shenyang Urban23 August 2026
Beijing Guoan
- W3-0away to Qingdao Jonoon9 October 2026
- D0-0away to SHANGHAI SIPG5 September 2026
- D1-1away to Dalian Zhixing28 August 2026
- D3-3Yunnan Yukun22 August 2026
- W3-0away to Shanghai Shenhua18 August 2026
What these results say
- Henan Jianye went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Henan Jianye did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Henan Jianye scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Beijing Guoan went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Beijing Guoan scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Henan Jianye | 27 | 8 | 10 | 9 | 35 | 37 | -2 | 28 |
| 3 | Beijing Guoan | 27 | 12 | 10 | 5 | 52 | 33 | +19 | 41 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Henan Jianye
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 16% today
Beijing Guoan
Chance to finish in the top four · 95% today
From our Super League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Henan Jianye vs Beijing Guoan
- 23 May 2026Beijing Guoan 1–2 Henan JianyeSuper League
- 6 December 2025Beijing Guoan 3–0 Henan JianyeFA Cup
- 12 September 2025Henan Jianye 2–0 Beijing GuoanSuper League
- 25 April 2025Beijing Guoan 1–0 Henan JianyeSuper League
- 2 November 2024Beijing Guoan 1–1 Henan JianyeSuper League
- 15 June 2024Henan Jianye 2–1 Beijing GuoanSuper League
Leading scorers: Henan Jianye and Beijing Guoan
Henan Jianye
GoalsAssists
- Gustavo135
- Bruno Nazário96
Beijing Guoan
GoalsAssists
- Zhang Yuning127
- Fábio Abreu116
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Henan Jianye carry a model rating of 6.26 against 6.48 for Beijing Guoan. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.39 goals for Henan Jianye and 1.66 for Beijing Guoan. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Henan Jianye rate 0.51 in attack and 1.67 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Beijing Guoan rate 0.69 and 1.44.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Beijing Guoan the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Henan Jianye against 1.66 for Beijing Guoan. Henan Jianye's attack/defence rating is 0.51/1.67 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.69/1.44 for Beijing Guoan.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Henan Jianye at home · Beijing Guoan away
League matches only, Super League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Super League matches this season: Henan Jianye 27, Beijing Guoan 27.
Henan Jianye score most often in the 16–30 minute window (9 goals); Beijing Guoan have let in 2 there.
Beijing Guoan score most often in the 76–90 minute window (12 goals); Henan Jianye have let in 7 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Henan Jianye
- at Hangzhou Greentown8 Nov · Super Leaguewin 28%
Beijing Guoan
- vs Jeonbuk Motors27 Oct · AFC Champions League Elitewin 41%
- at Port FC3 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 45%
- vs Chongqing Tongliang Long8 Nov · Super Leaguewin 60%
- at Daejeon Citizen24 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 22%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.