Qingdao Youth Island
vs
Yunnan Yukun
Super League prediction
Our model says: Qingdao Youth Island 2–1 Yunnan Yukun
The model makes it 45% Qingdao Youth Island, 24% draw, 31% Yunnan Yukun — fair odds of 2.22, 4.17 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Qingdao Youth Island 2.02, Yunnan Yukun 1.57.
Both teams to score: 69%. Over 2.5 goals: 69%, under 2.5: 31%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Qingdao Youth Island are 6th on 38 points from 27 games; Yunnan Yukun are 5th on 38 points from 27 games — Super League.
- Qingdao Youth Island are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-4 defeat at home to Dalian Zhixing.
- Yunnan Yukun have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-7 defeat away to Shanghai Shenhua.
- Last 3 meetings: level at 1 win each, 1 draw; the most recent, 24 May 2026, ended Yunnan Yukun 2–3 Qingdao Youth Island.
More Chinese Super League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Qingdao Youth Island vs Yunnan Yukun
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Qingdao Youth Island at 45% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Qingdao Youth Island vs Yunnan Yukun
Qingdao Youth Island
- L0-4Dalian Zhixing11 October 2026
- D2-2away to Wuhan Three Towns5 September 2026
- D1-1away to Tianjin Teda29 August 2026
- W2-0Shandong Luneng22 August 2026
- D0-0Chongqing Tongliang Long14 August 2026
Yunnan Yukun
- L1-7away to Shanghai Shenhua10 October 2026
- W5-0Shenyang Urban6 September 2026
- L0-6away to Hangzhou Greentown29 August 2026
- D3-3away to Beijing Guoan22 August 2026
- W3-1Dalian Zhixing15 August 2026
What these results say
- Qingdao Youth Island failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Yunnan Yukun had three goals or more.
- Yunnan Yukun scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Yunnan Yukun conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Qingdao Youth Island | 27 | 8 | 14 | 5 | 31 | 36 | -5 | 38 |
| 5 | Yunnan Yukun | 27 | 11 | 5 | 11 | 55 | 58 | -3 | 38 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Qingdao Youth Island
Chance to finish in the top four · 12% today
Yunnan Yukun
Chance to finish in the top four · 34% today
From our Super League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Qingdao Youth Island vs Yunnan Yukun
- 24 May 2026Yunnan Yukun 2–3 Qingdao Youth IslandSuper League
- 2 November 2025Yunnan Yukun 1–0 Qingdao Youth IslandSuper League
- 14 June 2025Qingdao Youth Island 0–0 Yunnan YukunSuper League
Leading scorers: Qingdao Youth Island and Yunnan Yukun
Qingdao Youth Island
GoalsAssists
- Davidson94
Yunnan Yukun
GoalsAssists
- O. Maritu209
- Cléber135
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Qingdao Youth Island carry a model rating of 6.23 against 6.26 for Yunnan Yukun. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.02 goals for Qingdao Youth Island and 1.57 for Yunnan Yukun. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Qingdao Youth Island rate 0.44 in attack and 1.58 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Yunnan Yukun rate 0.69 and 2.42.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Yunnan Yukun, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Qingdao Youth Island the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.02 expected goals for Qingdao Youth Island against 1.57 for Yunnan Yukun. Qingdao Youth Island's attack/defence rating is 0.44/1.58 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.69/2.42 for Yunnan Yukun.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Qingdao Youth Island at home · Yunnan Yukun away
League matches only, Super League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Super League matches this season: Qingdao Youth Island 27, Yunnan Yukun 27.
Qingdao Youth Island score most often in the 76–90 minute window (8 goals); Yunnan Yukun have let in 12 there.
Yunnan Yukun score most often in the 76–90 minute window (14 goals); Qingdao Youth Island have let in 14 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
Next match, by difficulty
Qingdao Youth Island
- at Shanghai Shenhua8 Nov · Super Leaguewin 21%
Yunnan Yukun
- vs Wuhan Three Towns8 Nov · Super Leaguewin 50%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.