Shenyang Urban
vs
Hangzhou Greentown
Super League prediction
Our model says: Shenyang Urban 1–2 Hangzhou Greentown
The model makes it 37% Shenyang Urban, 24% draw, 39% Hangzhou Greentown — fair odds of 2.70, 4.17 and 2.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Shenyang Urban 1.86, Hangzhou Greentown 1.94.
Both teams to score: 73%. Over 2.5 goals: 73%, under 2.5: 27%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Shenyang Urban and Hangzhou Greentown are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Shenyang Urban are 14th on 26 points from 27 games; Hangzhou Greentown are 10th on 31 points from 27 games — Super League.
- Shenyang Urban have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Wuhan Three Towns.
- Hangzhou Greentown have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-4 defeat at home to SHANGHAI SIPG.
- Last 5 meetings: Hangzhou Greentown 3 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 24 May 2026, ended Hangzhou Greentown 0–5 Shenyang Urban.
More Chinese Super League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Shenyang Urban vs Hangzhou Greentown
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Hangzhou Greentown at 39% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 2,861 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Shenyang Urban vs Hangzhou Greentown
Shenyang Urban
- D1-1Wuhan Three Towns11 October 2026
- L0-1away to Tianjin Teda12 September 2026
- L0-5away to Yunnan Yukun6 September 2026
- L1-2away to Chengdu Better City29 August 2026
- D4-4Henan Jianye23 August 2026
Hangzhou Greentown
- L2-4SHANGHAI SIPG9 October 2026
- W4-1Wuhan Three Towns18 September 2026
- L1-2away to Tianjin Teda6 September 2026
- W6-0Yunnan Yukun29 August 2026
- D1-1away to Sichuan Jiuniu22 August 2026
What these results say
- Shenyang Urban did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Shenyang Urban conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Hangzhou Greentown scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Hangzhou Greentown conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Hangzhou Greentown had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Shenyang Urban | 27 | 7 | 5 | 15 | 35 | 48 | -13 | 26 |
| 10 | Hangzhou Greentown | 27 | 10 | 6 | 11 | 47 | 47 | 0 | 31 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Shenyang Urban
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 65% today
Hangzhou Greentown
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 2% today
From our Super League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Shenyang Urban vs Hangzhou Greentown
- 24 May 2026Hangzhou Greentown 0–5 Shenyang UrbanSuper League
- 20 September 2021Hangzhou Greentown 1–0 Shenyang UrbanLeague One
- 3 September 2021Shenyang Urban 2–2 Hangzhou GreentownLeague One
- 15 October 2020Shenyang Urban 1–5 Hangzhou GreentownLeague One
- 27 September 2020Hangzhou Greentown 1–0 Shenyang UrbanLeague One
Leading scorers: Shenyang Urban and Hangzhou Greentown
Shenyang Urban
GoalsAssists
- Jeffinho102
- G. Mbenza91
Hangzhou Greentown
GoalsAssists
- A. Mitriță1112
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Shenyang Urban carry a model rating of 6.13 against 6.29 for Hangzhou Greentown. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.86 goals for Shenyang Urban and 1.94 for Hangzhou Greentown. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Shenyang Urban rate 0.48 in attack and 2.04 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Hangzhou Greentown rate 0.66 and 2.05.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Hangzhou Greentown the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Shenyang Urban against 1.94 for Hangzhou Greentown. Shenyang Urban's attack/defence rating is 0.48/2.04 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.66/2.05 for Hangzhou Greentown.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Shenyang Urban at home · Hangzhou Greentown away
League matches only, Super League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Super League matches this season: Shenyang Urban 27, Hangzhou Greentown 27.
Shenyang Urban score most often in the 76–90 minute window (14 goals); Hangzhou Greentown have let in 11 there.
Hangzhou Greentown score most often in the 76–90 minute window (12 goals); Shenyang Urban have let in 9 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
Next match, by difficulty
Shenyang Urban
- at SHANGHAI SIPG8 Nov · Super Leaguewin 18%
Hangzhou Greentown
- vs Henan Jianye8 Nov · Super Leaguewin 48%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.