22 August 2026, 18:45 UTC

Antwerp vs Genk Jupiler Pro League prediction & result

Bosuilstadion
Full time4 – 4

Final score: Antwerp 4-4 Genk.

Before kick-off the model made it 40% Antwerp, 25% draw, 35% Genk — fair odds of 2.50, 4.00 and 2.86.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Antwerp at 40%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Antwerp4%Draw92%Genk4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 8 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽A. Valenciaassist: C. Scott
16'
31'
⚽J. Kongoloassist: I. Bangoura
🔁L. Narhout: I. Salah
46'
🔁A. Valenciaout: C. Mejia
46'
48'
⚽R. Durosinmiassist: J. Erenbjerg
57'
⚽A. Yokoyamaassist: J. Erenbjerg
🔁X. Dierckxout: M. Fofana
59'
🔁L. Schelfhoutout: S. Porozo
65'
69'
🔁R. Durosinmiout: A. Bibout
69'
🔁A. Yokoyamaout: J. Afriyie
70'
⚽A. Biboutassist: J. Afriyie
75'
🔁J. Erenbjergout: D. Heymans
🔁C. Scottout: L. Van Gelder
78'
79'
Daan Heymans
⚽E. Tuypensassist: T. Somers
80'
⚽M. Frey (pen)
86'
⚽M. Freyassist: C. Mejia
88'
90'
🔁J. Itoout: N. Sattlberger

Match stats — Antwerp vs Genk

45%Possession55%
10Shots11
1On target7
4Corners4
0.73xG1.3

Goals against chances

Antwerp4 from 0.73 xGmore than the chances were worth
Genk4 from 1.30 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Antwerp 4-4-2
  • 41T. NozawaG
  • 28L. SchelfhoutD
  • 4Y. TsunashimaD
  • 20R. Van HeldenD
  • 24T. SomersD
  • 7A. ValenciaM
  • 14X. DierckxM
  • 30C. ScottM
  • 27E. Tuypens
  • 9M. FreyF
  • 99L. NarhF
Substitutes
  • 81N. Devalckeneer
  • 44M. BusiD
  • 17S. RendersD
  • 16L. Van GelderM
  • 25M. FofanaM
  • 11G. HairemansM
  • 33S. PorozoM
  • 77I. SalahF
  • 80C. MejiaF
Coach: Marvin Compper
Genk 4-2-3-1
  • 28L. BrughmansG
  • 77Z. El OuahdiD
  • 6M. SmetsD
  • 44J. KongoloD
  • 18J. KayembeD
  • 21I. BangouraM
  • 8B. HeynenM
  • 10J. ItoM
  • 11J. ErenbjergM
  • 30A. YokoyamaM
  • 17R. DurosinmiF
Substitutes
  • 26T. LawalG
  • 20K. AmaroD
  • 19Y. MedinaD
  • 38D. HeymansM
  • 24N. SattlbergerM
  • 29R. MirisolaF
  • 32N. Adedeji-SternbergF
  • 23A. BiboutF
  • 33J. AfriyieF
Coach: Jess Thorup

Form going into Antwerp vs Genk

Antwerp

All competitions we cover

  • W3-0away to Kortrijk15 August 2026
  • W2-1SK Beveren9 August 2026

Genk

All competitions we cover

  • W3-2KVC Westerlo15 August 2026
  • L1-2away to Zulte Waregem9 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Jupiler Pro League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
13Antwerp113261824-611
7Genk114341815+315

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Antwerp vs Genk

  • 19 May 2026Genk 0–0 AntwerpJupiler Pro League
  • 3 April 2026Antwerp 1–2 GenkJupiler Pro League
  • 7 December 2025Antwerp 3–0 GenkJupiler Pro League
  • 3 August 2025Genk 1–1 AntwerpJupiler Pro League
  • 27 April 2025Genk 0–1 AntwerpJupiler Pro League

Leading scorers: Antwerp and Genk

Antwerp

GoalsAssists

  • M. Frey40
  • S. Porozo40

Genk

GoalsAssists

  • R. Durosinmi60

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Antwerp and Genk drew 4–4. The model had leaned towards a win for Antwerp at 40% and given a draw 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: A. Valencia 16' for Antwerp, J. Kongolo 31' for Genk, R. Durosinmi 48' for Genk, A. Yokoyama 57' for Genk, A. Bibout 70' for Genk, E. Tuypens 80' for Antwerp, M. Frey (penalty) 86' for Antwerp, M. Frey 88' for Antwerp. On expected goals it finished 0.73–1.30.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.