Beşiktaş
vs
Crystal Palace
UEFA Europa League prediction
Our model says: Beşiktaş 2–1 Crystal Palace
The model makes it 52% Beşiktaş, 24% draw, 24% Crystal Palace — fair odds of 1.92, 4.17 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Beşiktaş 2.01, Crystal Palace 1.18.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%, under 2.5: 38%.
Model confidence: High.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Beşiktaş are 4th on 3 points from 1 game; Crystal Palace are 2nd on 3 points from 1 game — UEFA Europa League.
- Beşiktaş have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Kocaelispor.
- Crystal Palace have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-1 win at home to Nottingham Forest.
More Europa League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Beşiktaş vs Crystal Palace
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Beşiktaş at 52% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Beşiktaş vs Crystal Palace
Beşiktaş
- W4-1Marseille17 September 2026
Crystal Palace
- W4-0Lech Poznan17 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Beşiktaş | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 3 |
| 2 | Crystal Palace | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | +4 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Beşiktaş and Crystal Palace
Beşiktaş
GoalsAssists
- V. Černý10
- I. Fakili10
- A. Murillo10
Crystal Palace
No player in UEFA Europa League's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Beşiktaş carry a model rating of 6.9 against 6.79 for Crystal Palace. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.01 goals for Beşiktaş and 1.18 for Crystal Palace. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Beşiktaş rate 1.12 in attack and 1.01 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Crystal Palace rate 0.96 and 1.08.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Crystal Palace, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Beşiktaş the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.01 expected goals for Beşiktaş against 1.18 for Crystal Palace. Beşiktaş's attack/defence rating is 1.12/1.01 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.96/1.08 for Crystal Palace.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Beşiktaş at home · Crystal Palace away
League matches only, this season — Beşiktaş in the Süper Lig, Crystal Palace in the Premier League. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: Beşiktaş 7 in the Süper Lig, Crystal Palace 6 in the Premier League.
Beşiktaş score most often in the 16–30 minute window (4 goals); Crystal Palace have let in 2 there.
Crystal Palace score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); Beşiktaş have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Beşiktaş
- vs Başakşehir26 Oct · Süper Ligwin 48%
- at Kasımpaşa1 Nov · Süper Ligwin 45%
- at Celtic5 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 34%
Crystal Palace
- vs Newcastle25 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 40%
- at Fulham28 Oct · League Cupwin 28%
- at Tottenham31 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 36%
- vs 1899 Hoffenheim5 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 47%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.