Benfica
vs
Celtic
UEFA Europa League prediction
Our model says: Benfica 3–0 Celtic
The model makes it 64% Benfica, 21% draw, 15% Celtic — fair odds of 1.56, 4.76 and 6.67. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 3-0 (9%).
Expected goals: Benfica 3.04, Celtic 0.91.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 75%, under 2.5: 25%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Benfica are 7th on 3 points from 1 game; Celtic are 28th on 0 points from 1 game — UEFA Europa League.
- Benfica are unbeaten in their last 5 (4 won), most recently a 2-0 win away to AC Milan.
- Celtic have won 4 of their last 5, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Rangers.
- Last 2 meetings: Benfica 1 win to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 20 November 2012, ended Benfica 2–1 Celtic.
All Europa League predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Benfica vs Celtic
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Benfica at 64% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 691 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Benfica vs Celtic
Benfica
- W2-0away to AC Milan16 September 2026
- W3-1away to Aarhus27 August 2026
- W3-1Aarhus20 August 2026
- D1-1away to Heart of Midlothian13 August 2026
- W6-1Heart of Midlothian6 August 2026
Celtic
- L1-3Ferencvarosi TC17 September 2026
What these results say
- Benfica went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Benfica scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Benfica won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Benfica | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 28 | Celtic | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Benfica vs Celtic
- 20 November 2012Benfica 2–1 CelticUEFA Champions League
- 19 September 2012Celtic 0–0 BenficaUEFA Champions League
Leading scorers: Benfica and Celtic
Benfica
- J. Kamiński1 goal1 assist
- D. Lukebakio1 goal
Celtic
No player in UEFA Europa League's leading scorers — 1 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Benfica carry a model rating of 7.22 against 6.76 for Celtic. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 3.04 goals for Benfica and 0.91 for Celtic. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Benfica rate 1.62 in attack and 0.79 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Celtic rate 0.95 and 1.13.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Benfica the highest probability at 64%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 3.04 expected goals for Benfica against 0.91 for Celtic. Benfica's attack/defence rating is 1.62/0.79 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.95/1.13 for Celtic.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Benfica at home · Celtic away
League matches only, this season — Benfica in the Primeira Liga, Celtic in the Premiership. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: Benfica 7 in the Primeira Liga, Celtic 7 in the Premiership.
Benfica score most often in the 46–60 minute window (8 goals); Celtic have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Benfica
- at Omonia Nicosia22 Oct · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 36%
- at Santa Clara26 Oct · Primeira Ligawin 46%
- vs Alverca2 Nov · Primeira Ligawin 63%
- vs Lech Poznan5 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 58%
Celtic
- vs Heart of Midlothian18 Oct · Premiershipwin 48%
- vs Celta Vigo22 Oct · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 37%
- at Hibernian25 Oct · Premiershipwin 45%
- vs Dundee United28 Oct · Premiershipwin 62%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.