30 August 2026, 17:00 UTC

Mallorca vs AD Ceuta FC Segunda División prediction & result

Estadi Mallorca Son Moix, Palma de Mallorca
Full time3 – 0

Final score: Mallorca 3-0 AD Ceuta FC.

Before kick-off the model made it 56% Mallorca, 24% draw, 20% AD Ceuta FC — fair odds of 1.79, 4.17 and 5.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Mallorca at 56% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 691 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Mallorca99%Draw1%AD Ceuta FC0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

8'
🔁Anuarout: A. Petxa
18'
Alejandro Meléndez
⚽A. Sala
20'
⚽A. Fuentesassist: Z. Luvumbo
50'
🔁J. Cerdaout: A. Roca
55'
🔁M. Morlanesout: A. Sanchez
64'
🔁A. Fuentesout: A. Buksa
64'
🔁Z. Luvumboout: A. Liso
64'
Alex Sala
67'
72'
🔁J. Escobarout: A. Osoro
72'
🔁C. Teguiaout: A. Betancourt
Antoniu Roca
74'
78'
Adrián Lapeña
🔁T. Latoout: A. Soumahoro
84'
87'
Yann Bodiger
88'
🔁A. Camachoout: Matos Jose
88'
🔁Y. Bodigerout: A. R. Gonzalez
⚽A. Buksaassist: A. Sala
89'

Match stats — Mallorca vs AD Ceuta FC

53%Possession47%
13Shots5
4On target0
3Corners3
2.47xG0.27

Goals against chances

Mallorca3 from 2.47 xGmore than the chances were worth
AD Ceuta FC0 from 0.27 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Mallorca 4-2-3-1
  • 1A. TenasG
  • 34M. CalatayudD
  • 24M. ValjentD
  • 21A. RailloD
  • 3T. LatoD
  • 7A. SalaM
  • 8M. MorlanesM
  • 11Z. LuvumboM
  • 20P. TorreM
  • 19J. CerdaM
  • 18A. FuentesF
Substitutes
  • 25Pichu CuellarG
  • 13L. BergstromG
  • 22A. SoumahoroD
  • 4D. LopezD
  • 29L. OrejuelaD
  • 10S. DarderM
  • 6A. SanchezM
  • 39J. GarciaM
  • 16A. BuksaF
Coach: Luis Garcia
AD Ceuta FC 5-4-1
  • 13G. VallejoG
  • 7A. CamachoD
  • 23AnuarD
  • 6C. HernandezD
  • 5A. LapenaD
  • 16C. Redruello NimoD
  • 14Y. BodigerM
  • 20A. MelendezM
  • 8K. ZalazarM
  • 11C. TeguiaM
  • 9J. EscobarF
Substitutes
  • 1P. LopezG
  • 18A. PetxaD
  • 4A. CaparrosD
  • 3Matos JoseD
  • 34D. MasD
  • 32A. OsoroM
  • 17M. MensahM
  • 26A. BetancourtM
  • 31A. R. GonzalezM
Coach: Jose Romero

Form going into Mallorca vs AD Ceuta FC

Mallorca

  • L0-2away to Granada CF24 August 2026
  • W2-0Valladolid15 August 2026

AD Ceuta FC

  • L0-2Las Palmas22 August 2026
  • L1-5away to FC Andorra15 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Segunda División table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Mallorca741283+513
21AD Ceuta FC7115617-114

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Leading scorers: Mallorca and AD Ceuta FC

Mallorca

  • Fuentes4 goals

AD Ceuta FC

  • Carlos Hernández4 goals
  • Jordi Escobar2 goals1 assist

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.