Mallorca
vs
AD Ceuta FC
Segunda División prediction
The model makes it 44% Mallorca, 21% draw, 35% AD Ceuta FC — fair odds of 2.27, 4.76 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (8%).
Expected goals: Mallorca 2.13, AD Ceuta FC 1.92.
Both teams to score: 76%. Over 2.5 goals: 77%, under 2.5: 23%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Mallorca
- W2-0Valladolid15 August 2026
AD Ceuta FC
- L1-5away to FC Andorra15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Mallorca | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 22 | AD Ceuta FC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Mallorca carry a model rating of 6.76 against 6.88 for AD Ceuta FC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Mallorca W; AD Ceuta FC L.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.13 goals for Mallorca and 1.92 for AD Ceuta FC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Mallorca rate 0.91 in attack and 1.09 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; AD Ceuta FC rate 1.26 and 1.24.
That points to 77% for over two and a half goals and 76% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (8%), 1-1 (7%), 2-2 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 400 correct results out of 828 settled predictions (48%), with 78 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Mallorca the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.13 expected goals for Mallorca against 1.92 for AD Ceuta FC. Mallorca's attack/defence rating is 0.91/1.09 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.26/1.24 for AD Ceuta FC.