Cadiz vs Valladolid Segunda División prediction & result
Final score: Cadiz 1-1 Valladolid.
Before kick-off the model made it 55% Cadiz, 25% draw, 20% Valladolid — fair odds of 1.82, 4.00 and 5.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Segunda División predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Cadiz at 55% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 691 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Cadiz vs Valladolid
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 13J. EzkietaG
- 14B. KovacevicD
- 4J. CastroD
- 6M. FernandezD
- 12G. GocholeishviliM
- 18JandroM
- 23D. RodriguezM
- 28D. A. Zarate HidalgoM
- 16A. CorderoM
- 19IzetaF
- 9A. PascualF
- 1D. GilG
- 22C. GutierrezD
- 27J. Diaz PeregrinaD
- 31N. UkwuijeD
- 33M. RiveraM
- 5J. GonzalezM
- 24I. SanchezM
- 11J. de la RosaF
- 21V. KopotunF
- 1A. AcevesG
- 14I. AlejoD
- 12M. RubioD
- 4D. TorresD
- 18C. ClercD
- 8T. OjedaM
- 21J. PonceauM
- 11Y. CabanzonM
- 7L. ChaconM
- 22K. de RooijM
- 20R. van DuivenF
- 26L. LavagninoG
- 5R. MartinezD
- 27I. GarrielD
- 2TrilliD
- 6M. LachuerM
- 16A. BalboaM
- 15P. TomeoD
- 28D. Perez GuerreroM
- 9J. LatasaF
Form going into Cadiz vs Valladolid
Cadiz
- D2-2away to Eldense22 August 2026
- D0-0Celta de Vigo II15 August 2026
Valladolid
- L0-1away to Eibar23 August 2026
- L0-2away to Mallorca15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Cadiz | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 4 |
| 17 | Valladolid | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Cadiz vs Valladolid
- 31 March 2026Valladolid 3–0 CadizSegunda División
- 9 November 2025Cadiz 0–0 ValladolidSegunda División
- 19 May 2023Cadiz 2–0 ValladolidLa Liga
- 16 September 2022Valladolid 0–1 CadizLa Liga
- 24 April 2021Valladolid 1–1 CadizLa Liga
- 29 December 2020Cadiz 0–0 ValladolidLa Liga