League Stage - 2 · 15 October 2026, 16:45 UTC

AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Beer Sheva UEFA Europa League prediction

AFAS Stadion, Alkmaar

Our model says: AZ Alkmaar 2–0 Hapoel Beer Sheva

The model makes it 55% AZ Alkmaar, 25% draw, 20% Hapoel Beer Sheva — fair odds of 1.82, 4.00 and 5.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (11%).

Expected goals: AZ Alkmaar 2.21, Hapoel Beer Sheva 0.88.

Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.

Model confidence: High.

Published · updated

Key facts

  • AZ Alkmaar are 26th on 0 points from 1 game; Hapoel Beer Sheva are 20th on 1 point from 1 game — UEFA Europa League.
  • AZ Alkmaar are unbeaten in their last 5 (4 won), most recently a 1-0 win at home to Telstar.
  • Hapoel Beer Sheva have won 3 of their last 5, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Ironi Kiryat Shmona.

Live win probability

From kick-off
AZ Alkmaar55%1.82
Draw25%4.00
Hapoel Beer Sheva20%5.00

These update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.

Model insights: AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Beer Sheva

52%
Both teams to score
60%
Over 2.5 goals
40%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

AZ Alkmaar win Draw Hapoel Beer Sheva win
  1. 2–011%
  2. 2–110%
  3. 1–010%
  4. 1–19%
  5. 3–08%
  6. 3–17%
  7. 0–05%

Scores read AZ Alkmaar first. Each bar is the model's probability of that exact result, drawn against the likeliest one; the other scorelines it considered share the remaining 39%.

Has the model earned this number?

It puts AZ Alkmaar at 55% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 691 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Form going into AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Beer Sheva

AZ Alkmaar

  • L0-1away to Sunderland16 September 2026

Hapoel Beer Sheva

  • D0-0Dinamo Zagreb16 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

UEFA Europa League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
26AZ Alkmaar100101-10
20Hapoel Beer Sheva10100001

Where the two sides stand. Full table

The two sides

AZ Alkmaar carry a model rating of 6.93 against 6.63 for Hapoel Beer Sheva. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.

What the model expects

Under the hood the model expects 2.21 goals for AZ Alkmaar and 0.88 for Hapoel Beer Sheva. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.

AZ Alkmaar rate 1.04 in attack and 0.88 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Hapoel Beer Sheva rate 0.82 and 1.28.

Where the model differs from the table

The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Hapoel Beer Sheva, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives AZ Alkmaar the highest probability at 55%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.21 expected goals for AZ Alkmaar against 0.88 for Hapoel Beer Sheva. AZ Alkmaar's attack/defence rating is 1.04/0.88 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.82/1.28 for Hapoel Beer Sheva.

Season stats

AZ AlkmaarHapoel Beer Sheva
7Matches5
6W 1D 0LRecord3W 1D 1L
18 2.6 a gameGoals scored8 1.6 a game
6 0.9 a gameGoals conceded7 1.4 a game
3 of 7Clean sheets2 of 5
0 of 7Failed to score0 of 5
–Penalties scored–
6 0.9 a gameYellow cards18 3.6 a game
0Red cards1
4-2-3-1 7×Usual shape4-3-3 3×

AZ Alkmaar at home · Hapoel Beer Sheva away

4Played2
3W 1D 0LRecord2W 0D 0L
9–3Goals for – against4–1
2 of 4Clean sheets1 of 2

League matches only, this season — AZ Alkmaar in the Eredivisie, Hapoel Beer Sheva in the Ligat Ha'al. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All league matches this season: AZ Alkmaar 7 in the Eredivisie, Hapoel Beer Sheva 5 in the Ligat Ha'al.

AZ Alkmaar scored 213444
Hapoel Beer Sheva conceded 101113
Hapoel Beer Sheva scored 021221
AZ Alkmaar conceded 030012

Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

AZ Alkmaar

  • at Cambuur18 Oct · Eredivisiewin 52%
  • at Ararat-Armenia22 Oct · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 60%
  • vs Twente25 Oct · Eredivisiewin 39%
  • at Ajax31 Oct · Eredivisiewin 29%

Hapoel Beer Sheva

Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.