Catanzaro
vs
Avellino
Serie B prediction
Our model says: Catanzaro 2–1 Avellino
The model makes it 38% Catanzaro, 27% draw, 35% Avellino — fair odds of 2.63, 3.70 and 2.86.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Catanzaro 1.46, Avellino 1.39.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,327 settled matches.
A tight game: Catanzaro and Avellino are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Catanzaro's rating is built from 54 Serie B matches and Avellino's from 50, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 889 matches.
Key facts
- Catanzaro are bottom on 6 points from 11 games; Avellino are 5th on 16 points from 11 games — Serie B.
- Catanzaro have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Cesena.
- Avellino are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Benevento.
- Last 6 meetings: Catanzaro 3 wins to 0, 3 draws; the most recent, 12 May 2026, ended Catanzaro 3–0 Avellino.
More Serie B predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Catanzaro vs Avellino
Has the model earned this number?
Catanzaro at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Catanzaro vs Avellino
Catanzaro
Serie B
- L0-1away to Cesena7 November 2026
- D1-1Padova31 October 2026
- D1-1away to Benevento27 October 2026
- L1-6Ascoli24 October 2026
- D2-2away to Hellas Verona16 October 2026
Avellino
Serie B
- D1-1away to Benevento7 November 2026
- W2-0Pisa1 November 2026
- D1-1away to Virtus Entella27 October 2026
- L0-1Padova24 October 2026
- D1-1away to Cesena18 October 2026
What these results say
- Catanzaro did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Catanzaro conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Catanzaro scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Avellino had two goals or fewer.
- Avellino failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Avellino scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Catanzaro | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 23 | -12 | 6 |
| 5 | Avellino | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 16 | 11 | +5 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Catanzaro
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 32% today
From our Serie B season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Catanzaro vs Avellino
- 12 May 2026Catanzaro 3–0 AvellinoSerie B
- 11 April 2026Avellino 1–1 CatanzaroSerie B
- 13 December 2025Catanzaro 1–0 AvellinoSerie B
- 4 March 2023Catanzaro 4–1 AvellinoSerie C - Girone C
- 16 November 2022Catanzaro 3–3 AvellinoCoppa Italia Serie C
- 30 October 2022Avellino 2–2 CatanzaroSerie C - Girone C
Leading scorers: Catanzaro and Avellino
Catanzaro
No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.
Avellino
GoalsAssists
- R. Russo52
- M. Besaggio30
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Avellino (5th, with Catanzaro 20th), while our numbers lean to Catanzaro. Catanzaro rate 0.77 in attack and 1.70 in defence, Avellino 0.70 and 1.27 (lower is better in defence), so Catanzaro have been the better side in attack on recent expected goals, which the 10-point gap in the table does not yet show. Playing at home adds the rest.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Catanzaro a 0% chance of the title and Avellino 1.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Catanzaro the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Catanzaro against 1.39 for Avellino. Catanzaro's attack/defence rating is 0.77/1.7 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.7/1.27 for Avellino.
How the model reaches 38% for Catanzaro to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Catanzaro to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, Catanzaro's ratings take away 2 points and Avellino's ratings take away 3 points, which lands on the published 38%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage42%+6
- Both sides at this match's level43%+1
- Catanzaro's ratings41%−2
- Avellino's ratings38%−3
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Catanzaro at home · Avellino away
League matches only, Serie B, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie B matches this season: Catanzaro 11, Avellino 11.
Catanzaro score most often in the 16–30 minute window (4 goals); Avellino have let in 3 there.
Avellino score most often in the 16–30 minute window (6 goals); Catanzaro have let in 4 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Catanzaro
- at Cremonese5 Dec · Serie Bwin 24%
- vs Virtus Entella8 Dec · Serie Bwin 45%
- at Modena12 Dec · Serie Bwin 20%
Avellino
- vs Sudtirol5 Dec · Serie Bwin 45%
- at Hellas Verona8 Dec · Serie Bwin 25%
- vs Empoli12 Dec · Serie Bwin 50%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.