Carrarese
vs
Juve Stabia
Serie B prediction
Our model says: Carrarese 1–0 Juve Stabia
The model makes it 34% Carrarese, 32% draw, 34% Juve Stabia — fair odds of 2.94, 3.13 and 2.94.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Carrarese 1.04, Juve Stabia 1.05.
Both teams to score: 43%. Over 2.5 goals: 35%, under 2.5: 65%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,327 settled matches.
A tight game: Carrarese and Juve Stabia are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Carrarese's rating is built from 49 Serie B matches and Juve Stabia's from 52, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 889 matches.
Key facts
- Carrarese are 17th on 10 points from 11 games; Juve Stabia are 13th on 12 points from 11 games — Serie B.
- Carrarese have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Sampdoria.
- Juve Stabia have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Arezzo.
- Last 4 meetings: level at 1 win each, 2 draws; the most recent, 14 March 2026, ended Juve Stabia 1–1 Carrarese.
More Serie B predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Carrarese vs Juve Stabia
Has the model earned this number?
Carrarese at 34%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Carrarese vs Juve Stabia
Carrarese
Serie B
- L0-1Sampdoria8 November 2026
- L0-3away to Hellas Verona1 November 2026
- W2-1Arezzo28 October 2026
- L1-2away to Palermo25 October 2026
- W2-1Modena17 October 2026
Juve Stabia
Serie B
- W1-0Arezzo7 November 2026
- D2-2away to Empoli1 November 2026
- L0-1Hellas Verona28 October 2026
- W1-0away to Cremonese24 October 2026
- W3-0Sudtirol18 October 2026
What these results say
- Carrarese conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Carrarese had three goals or more.
- Juve Stabia scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Carrarese | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 9 | 14 | -5 | 10 |
| 13 | Juve Stabia | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Carrarese
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 27% today
Juve Stabia
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 6% today
From our Serie B season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Carrarese vs Juve Stabia
- 14 March 2026Juve Stabia 1–1 CarrareseSerie B
- 5 October 2025Carrarese 3–0 Juve StabiaSerie B
- 25 January 2025Juve Stabia 2–1 CarrareseSerie B
- 2 November 2024Carrarese 0–0 Juve StabiaSerie B
Leading scorers: Carrarese and Juve Stabia
Carrarese
No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Juve Stabia
GoalsAssists
- Antonio Di Nardo70
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Juve Stabia (13th, with Carrarese 17th), while our numbers lean to Carrarese. Carrarese rate 0.59 in attack and 1.38 in defence, Juve Stabia 0.65 and 1.18 (lower is better in defence): close enough that playing at home is what tips the call.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Carrarese a 0% chance of the title and Juve Stabia 0.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Carrarese the highest probability at 34%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Carrarese against 1.05 for Juve Stabia. Carrarese's attack/defence rating is 0.59/1.38 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.65/1.18 for Juve Stabia.
How the model reaches 34% for Carrarese to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Carrarese to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, the level of the two sides takes away 2 points, Carrarese's ratings take away 3 points and Juve Stabia's ratings take away 3 points, which lands on the published 34%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage42%+6
- Both sides at this match's level40%−2
- Carrarese's ratings37%−3
- Juve Stabia's ratings34%−3
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Carrarese at home · Juve Stabia away
League matches only, Serie B, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
CarrareseJuve Stabia
Carrarese are 17th after 11 Serie B matches (between 11th and 19th so far); Juve Stabia are 13th after 11 (between 12th and 20th). Points deductions (Juve Stabia −4) count from the first match. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie B matches this season: Carrarese 11, Juve Stabia 11.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Carrarese
- at Cesena5 Dec · Serie Bwin 30%
- vs Pisa8 Dec · Serie Bwin 34%
- at Cremonese12 Dec · Serie Bwin 22%
Juve Stabia
- vs Benevento5 Dec · Serie Bwin 38%
- at Ascoli8 Dec · Serie Bwin 20%
- vs Padova12 Dec · Serie Bwin 43%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.