Modena
vs
Padova
Serie B prediction
Our model says: Modena 1–0 Padova
The model makes it 51% Modena, 28% draw, 21% Padova — fair odds of 1.96, 3.57 and 4.76.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (13%).
Expected goals: Modena 1.61, Padova 0.84.
Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 44%, under 2.5: 56%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.
Edge to Modena: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Modena's rating is built from 50 Serie B matches and Padova's from 49, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 889 matches.
Key facts
- Modena are 2nd on 23 points from 11 games; Padova are 10th on 15 points from 11 games — Serie B.
- Modena are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 2-0 win away to Virtus Entella.
- Padova are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Empoli.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 3 wins each, 0 draws; the most recent, 28 February 2026, ended Modena 1–2 Padova.
More Serie B predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Modena vs Padova
Has the model earned this number?
Modena at 51%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Modena vs Padova
Modena
Serie B
- W2-0away to Virtus Entella8 November 2026
- D1-1Mantova31 October 2026
- W2-1away to Vicenza Virtus27 October 2026
- W3-0Cesena24 October 2026
- L1-2away to Carrarese17 October 2026
Padova
Serie B
- D2-2Empoli7 November 2026
- D1-1away to Catanzaro31 October 2026
- W2-0Sudtirol27 October 2026
- W1-0away to Avellino24 October 2026
- L1-2Virtus Entella17 October 2026
What these results say
- Modena scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Padova scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Modena | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 10 | +10 | 23 |
| 10 | Padova | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Modena
Chance to finish in the top two · 36% today
Padova
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 6% today
From our Serie B season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Modena vs Padova
- 28 February 2026Modena 1–2 PadovaSerie B
- 11 January 2026Padova 2–0 ModenaSerie B
- 18 April 2021Modena 3–0 PadovaSerie C - Girone B
- 23 December 2020Padova 0–1 ModenaSerie C - Girone B
- 19 January 2020Padova 0–1 ModenaSerie C - Girone B
- 9 September 2019Modena 0–1 PadovaSerie C - Girone B
Leading scorers: Modena and Padova
Modena
GoalsAssists
- A. Belotti70
- G. Ambrosino33
- G. Caso32
Padova
No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Modena a 13.5% chance of the title and Padova 0.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Modena the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Modena against 0.84 for Padova. Modena's attack/defence rating is 0.82/1.14 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.63/1.32 for Padova.
How the model reaches 51% for Modena to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Modena to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Modena's ratings add 5 points and Padova's ratings add 5 points, which lands on the published 51%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage42%+6
- Both sides at this match's level41%−1
- Modena's ratings46%+5
- Padova's ratings51%+5
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Modena at home · Padova away
League matches only, Serie B, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie B matches this season: Modena 11, Padova 11.
Modena score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Padova have let in 2 there.
Padova score most often in the 61–75 minute window (3 goals); Modena have let in 0 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Modena
- vs Arezzo5 Dec · Serie Bwin 62%
- at Sampdoria8 Dec · Serie Bwin 44%
- vs Catanzaro12 Dec · Serie Bwin 56%
Padova
- vs Vicenza Virtus5 Dec · Serie Bwin 49%
- at Benevento8 Dec · Serie Bwin 25%
- at Juve Stabia12 Dec · Serie Bwin 26%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.