Cardiff vs Wrexham Championship prediction & result
Final score: Cardiff 1-1 Wrexham.
Before kick-off the model made it 60% Cardiff, 16% draw, 24% Wrexham — fair odds of 1.67, 6.25 and 4.17.
Most likely scoreline: 3-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Championship predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Cardiff at 60%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Cardiff vs Wrexham
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Nathan TrottG
- 38Perry NgD
- 4Gabriel OshoD
- 3Joel BaganD
- 23Calum ScanlonD
- 18Alex RobertsonM
- 11Ollie TannerM
- 8Jack MoylanM
- 45Cian AshfordM
- 16Chris WillockM
- 9Yousef SalechF
- 10Rubin ColwillM
- 27Joel ColwillM
- 44Ronan KpakioD
- 47Callum RobinsonF
- 39Isaak DaviesF
- 30Harry TyrerG
- 40Noah AnyadikeD
- 33Rob TankiewiczM
- 14David TurnbullM
- 22Anthony PattersonG
- 26Zak VynerD
- 5Dominic HyamD
- 2Callum DoyleD
- 30Daniel ImrayM
- 20Oliver RathboneM
- 37Matty JamesM
- 27Lewis O'BrienM
- 14George ThomasonM
- 19Kieffer MooreF
- 33Nathan BroadheadF
- 8Ben WhitemanM
- 28Sam SmithF
- 7Davis Keillor-DunnF
- 47Ryan LongmanM
- 15George DobsonM
- 21Danny WardG
- 24Dan ScarrD
- 4Max CleworthD
- 11Bailey CadamarteriF
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Cardiff | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 27 | 27 | 0 | 18 |
| 15 | Wrexham | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 18 | 20 | -2 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Cardiff vs Wrexham
- 28 October 2025Wrexham 1–2 CardiffLeague Cup
Leading scorers: Cardiff and Wrexham
Cardiff
GoalsAssists
- J. Moylan103
- Y. Salech51
Wrexham
GoalsAssists
- K. Moore52
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Cardiff and Wrexham drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Cardiff at 60% and given a draw 16%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 6 matches like this one. The goals: Kieffer Moore 3' for Wrexham, Rubin Colwill 90+8' for Cardiff. On expected goals it finished 0.90–1.55.