Burnley vs West Ham Championship prediction & result
Final score: Burnley 2-2 West Ham.
Before kick-off the model made it 31% Burnley, 27% draw, 42% West Ham — fair odds of 3.23, 3.70 and 2.38.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Championship predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
West Ham at 42%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Burnley vs West Ham
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Max WeissG
- 22Oliver SonneD
- 2Kyle WalkerD
- 3Max AlleyneD
- 6Bashir HumphreysD
- 28Hannibal MejbriM
- 8Ugo RaghouberM
- 10Marcus EdwardsM
- 21Aaron RamseyM
- 7Jacob Bruun LarsenM
- 19Zian FlemmingF
- 29Josh LaurentM
- 11Zeki AmdouniF
- 13Ben AmosG
- 4Joe WorrallD
- 23Lucas PiresD
- 20Shurandy SamboD
- 31Mike TrésorF
- 17Andreas HountondjiF
- 27Armando BrojaF
- 1Mads HermansenG
- 2Kyle Walker-PetersD
- 15Konstantinos MavropanosD
- 3Max KilmanD
- 30Oliver ScarlesD
- 20Jarrod BowenM
- 61Lewis OrfordM
- 17Mohamadou KantéM
- 10Manor SolomonM
- 19Pablo FelipeF
- 11Valentín CastellanosF
- 8James Ward-ProwseM
- 23Alphonse AréolaG
- 58Airidas GolambeckisD
- 12El Hadji Malick DioufD
- 63Ezra MayersD
- 34Joël VeltmanD
- 40George EarthyM
- 66Joshua AjalaF
- 48Josh LandersF
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Burnley | 15 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 22 | 31 | -9 | 10 |
| 9 | West Ham | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 37 | 23 | +14 | 23 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Burnley vs West Ham
- 7 February 2026Burnley 0–2 West HamPremier League
- 8 November 2025West Ham 3–2 BurnleyPremier League
- 10 March 2024West Ham 2–2 BurnleyPremier League
- 25 November 2023Burnley 1–2 West HamPremier League
- 17 April 2022West Ham 1–1 BurnleyPremier League
Leading scorers: Burnley and West Ham
Burnley
No player in Championship's leading scorers — 22 league goals as a side.
West Ham
GoalsAssists
- J. Bowen77
- K. Mavropanos50
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Burnley and West Ham drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for West Ham at 42% and given a draw 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: M. Kilman 10' for West Ham, M. Solomon 72' for West Ham, Z. Flemming (penalty) 83' for Burnley, Z. Flemming 90+2' for Burnley. On expected goals it finished 2.10–1.21.