Watford vs Southampton Championship prediction & result
Final score: Watford 2-1 Southampton.
Before kick-off the model made it 38% Watford, 24% draw, 38% Southampton — fair odds of 2.63, 4.17 and 2.63.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Watford at 38%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Watford vs Southampton
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Federico RavagliaG
- 23Omar Haktab TraoreD
- 6Matthew PollockD
- 4Kévin Keben BiakoloD
- 16Marc BolaD
- 8Edoardo BoveM
- 5Hector KyprianouM
- 21Amin NabizadaM
- 17Iker BravoM
- 7Othmane MaammaM
- 20Mamadou DoumbiaF
- 33Jordan ZemuraD
- 48Michael Adu-PokuF
- 39Edo KayembeM
- 22Martín PayeroM
- 11Rocco VataF
- 26Daniel BachmannG
- 53James ClarridgeD
- 56Albert EamesD
- 9Luca KjerrumgaardF
- 1Daniel PeretzG
- 14James BreeD
- 6Taylor Harwood-BellisD
- 5Jack StephensD
- 3Ryan ManningD
- 26Cameron BraggM
- 4Flynn DownesM
- 27Kuryu MatsukiM
- 7Leo ScienzaM
- 11Lewis DobbinM
- 9Cyle LarinF
- 10Finn AzazM
- 23Samuel EdozieM
- 28Divin MubamaF
- 22Ben Brereton DíazF
- 25George LongG
- 15Nathan WoodD
- 34WelingtonD
- 18Tom FellowsM
- 19Cameron ArcherF
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Watford | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 13 | 23 | -10 | 15 |
| 7 | Southampton | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 29 | 15 | +14 | 24 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Watford vs Southampton
- 7 February 2026Southampton 1–0 WatfordChampionship
- 30 August 2025Watford 2–2 SouthamptonChampionship
- 13 April 2024Southampton 3–2 WatfordChampionship
- 6 February 2024Southampton 3–0 WatfordFA Cup
- 28 January 2024Watford 1–1 SouthamptonFA Cup
Leading scorers: Watford and Southampton
Watford
No player in Championship's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.
Southampton
GoalsAssists
- C. Larin70
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Watford beat Southampton 2–1. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Watford at 38%. The goals: I. Bravo 12' for Watford, A. Nabizada 29' for Watford, C. Larin 56' for Southampton. On expected goals it finished 0.83–1.65.