Cardiff
vs
Birmingham
Championship prediction
Our model says: Cardiff 2–1 Birmingham
The model makes it 37% Cardiff, 28% draw, 35% Birmingham — fair odds of 2.70, 3.57 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Cardiff 1.43, Birmingham 1.37.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Cardiff and Birmingham are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
The full preview, with the complete head-to-head record →
Key facts
- Cardiff are 18th on 10 points from 10 games; Birmingham are 3rd on 17 points from 10 games — Championship.
- Cardiff have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 5-1 win at home to Watford.
- Birmingham are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 4-0 win at home to Preston.
- Last 6 meetings: Cardiff 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 10 April 2024, ended Birmingham 0–1 Cardiff.
More Championship predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Cardiff vs Birmingham
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Cardiff at 37% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 2,861 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Cardiff vs Birmingham
Cardiff
- W5-1Watford13 October 2026
- L1-2away to Blackburn10 October 2026
- W3-1Charlton19 September 2026
- L0-1away to Bolton12 September 2026
- D1-1Stoke City8 September 2026
Birmingham
- W4-0Preston13 October 2026
- W1-0away to West Brom10 October 2026
- D2-2Middlesbrough19 September 2026
- W2-1away to Derby12 September 2026
- L1-2away to Norwich9 September 2026
What these results say
- Cardiff conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Cardiff scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Cardiff.
- Birmingham scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Birmingham had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Cardiff | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 16 | 15 | +1 | 10 |
| 3 | Birmingham | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 17 | 11 | +6 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Cardiff
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 12% today
Birmingham
Chance to finish in the top four · 30% today
From our Championship season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Cardiff vs Birmingham
- 10 April 2024Birmingham 0–1 CardiffChampionship
- 13 December 2023Cardiff 0–1 BirminghamChampionship
- 29 August 2023Birmingham 1–3 CardiffLeague Cup
- 14 February 2023Birmingham 0–2 CardiffChampionship
- 13 August 2022Cardiff 1–0 BirminghamChampionship
- 30 April 2022Cardiff 1–1 BirminghamChampionship
Leading scorers: Cardiff and Birmingham
Cardiff
GoalsAssists
- J. Moylan52
Birmingham
GoalsAssists
- A. Priske41
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Cardiff carry a model rating of 6.55 against 6.65 for Birmingham. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.43 goals for Cardiff and 1.37 for Birmingham. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Cardiff rate 0.82 in attack and 1.50 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Birmingham rate 0.77 and 1.16.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Birmingham, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Cardiff a 0.3% chance of the title and Birmingham 4.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Cardiff the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Cardiff against 1.37 for Birmingham. Cardiff's attack/defence rating is 0.82/1.5 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.77/1.16 for Birmingham.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Cardiff at home · Birmingham away
League matches only, Championship, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
CardiffBirmingham
Cardiff are 18th after 10 Championship matches (between 11th and 22nd so far); Birmingham are 3rd after 10 (between 3rd and 15th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored. Points deductions (Southampton −4) count from the first match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Championship matches this season: Cardiff 10, Birmingham 10.
Birmingham score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); Cardiff have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Cardiff
- at Wolves31 Oct · Championshipwin 24%
- vs West Ham4 Nov · Championshipwin 31%
- vs Burnley7 Nov · Championshipwin 35%
- at Norwich21 Nov · Championshipwin 29%
Birmingham
- at Lincoln31 Oct · Championshipwin 34%
- vs Millwall3 Nov · Championshipwin 42%
- vs Swansea7 Nov · Championshipwin 39%
- at Stoke City21 Nov · Championshipwin 36%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.