Lincoln
vs
Burnley
Championship prediction
Our model says: Lincoln 0–1 Burnley
The model makes it 33% Lincoln, 31% draw, 36% Burnley — fair odds of 3.03, 3.23 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Lincoln 1.08, Burnley 1.17.
Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 39%, under 2.5: 61%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Lincoln and Burnley are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Lincoln are 17th on 11 points from 9 games; Burnley are 21st on 8 points from 10 games — Championship.
- Lincoln have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to Sheffield Utd.
- Burnley are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Charlton.
More Championship predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Lincoln vs Burnley
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Burnley at 36% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 2,861 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Lincoln vs Burnley
Lincoln
- L0-3away to Sheffield Utd10 October 2026
- L1-2Swansea19 September 2026
- W1-0away to Bristol City15 September 2026
- W1-0away to Preston12 September 2026
- D1-1Southampton5 September 2026
Burnley
- D2-2Charlton13 October 2026
- W4-0away to Watford10 October 2026
- D1-1Derby19 September 2026
- L1-3away to Swansea12 September 2026
- D1-1away to Wrexham8 September 2026
What these results say
- Lincoln scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Burnley scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Burnley failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Burnley conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Lincoln | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 11 |
| 21 | Burnley | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 15 | 19 | -4 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Lincoln
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 10% today
Burnley
Chance to finish in the top four · 16% today
From our Championship season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Lincoln vs Burnley
- 18 February 2017Burnley 0–1 LincolnFA Cup
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Lincoln carry a model rating of 6.55 against 6.69 for Burnley. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.08 goals for Lincoln and 1.17 for Burnley. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Lincoln rate 0.62 in attack and 1.17 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Burnley rate 0.84 and 1.16.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Lincoln, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Lincoln a 0.4% chance of the title and Burnley 1.7%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Burnley the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Lincoln against 1.17 for Burnley. Lincoln's attack/defence rating is 0.62/1.17 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.84/1.16 for Burnley.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Lincoln at home · Burnley away
League matches only, Championship, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
LincolnBurnley
Lincoln are 15th after 9 Championship matches (between 8th and 23rd so far); Burnley are 21st after 10 (between 10th and 24th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored. Points deductions (Southampton −4) count from the first match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Championship matches this season: Lincoln 9, Burnley 10.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Lincoln
- vs Birmingham31 Oct · Championshipwin 35%
- at Watford3 Nov · Championshipwin 40%
- at QPR7 Nov · Championshipwin 29%
Burnley
- vs Portsmouth31 Oct · Championshipwin 53%
- at QPR3 Nov · Championshipwin 37%
- at Cardiff7 Nov · Championshipwin 38%
- vs Blackburn22 Nov · Championshipwin 49%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.