Blackburn
vs
Wrexham
Championship prediction
Our model says: Blackburn 1–0 Wrexham
The model makes it 42% Blackburn, 29% draw, 29% Wrexham — fair odds of 2.38, 3.45 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Blackburn 1.41, Wrexham 1.08.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%, under 2.5: 55%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Blackburn are 7th on 15 points from 10 games; Wrexham are 16th on 11 points from 10 games — Championship.
- Blackburn are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to Bristol City.
- Wrexham have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to West Brom.
- Last 3 meetings: level at 1 win each, 1 draw; the most recent, 1 January 2026, ended Blackburn 0–2 Wrexham.
More Championship predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Blackburn vs Wrexham
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Blackburn at 42% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Blackburn vs Wrexham
Blackburn
- W1-0away to Bristol City13 October 2026
- W2-1Cardiff10 October 2026
- D2-2away to Portsmouth19 September 2026
- W3-1Millwall12 September 2026
- L1-2Sheffield Utd8 September 2026
Wrexham
- L1-2West Brom13 October 2026
- D1-1away to Derby10 October 2026
- W2-1Southampton19 September 2026
- L0-6away to West Ham11 September 2026
- D1-1Burnley8 September 2026
What these results say
- Blackburn scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Blackburn conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Blackburn had three goals or more.
- Wrexham conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Wrexham failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Wrexham scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Blackburn | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 13 | +2 | 15 |
| 16 | Wrexham | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Blackburn
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 6% today
Wrexham
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 7% today
From our Championship season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Blackburn vs Wrexham
- 1 January 2026Blackburn 0–2 WrexhamChampionship
- 29 November 2025Wrexham 1–1 BlackburnChampionship
- 29 January 2024Blackburn 4–1 WrexhamFA Cup
Leading scorers: Blackburn and Wrexham
Blackburn
GoalsAssists
- O. Afolayan42
- A. Guðjohnsen41
Wrexham
GoalsAssists
- K. Moore41
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Blackburn carry a model rating of 6.54 against 6.52 for Wrexham. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.41 goals for Blackburn and 1.08 for Wrexham. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Blackburn rate 0.66 in attack and 1.24 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Wrexham rate 0.73 and 1.42.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Blackburn a 0.4% chance of the title and Wrexham 0.4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Blackburn the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Blackburn against 1.08 for Wrexham. Blackburn's attack/defence rating is 0.66/1.24 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.73/1.42 for Wrexham.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Blackburn at home · Wrexham away
League matches only, Championship, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
BlackburnWrexham
Blackburn are 5th after 10 Championship matches (between 1st and 16th so far); Wrexham are 16th after 10 (between 10th and 16th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored. Points deductions (Southampton −4) count from the first match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Championship matches this season: Blackburn 10, Wrexham 10.
Blackburn score most often in the 46–60 minute window (6 goals); Wrexham have let in 2 there.
Wrexham score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); Blackburn have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Blackburn
- at Swansea31 Oct · Championshipwin 23%
- vs Stoke City3 Nov · Championshipwin 42%
- vs West Ham7 Nov · Championshipwin 30%
- at Burnley22 Nov · Championshipwin 23%
Wrexham
- at Sheffield Utd30 Oct · Championshipwin 27%
- vs Middlesbrough4 Nov · Championshipwin 33%
- vs Wolves7 Nov · Championshipwin 34%
- at Lincoln21 Nov · Championshipwin 29%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.