AZ Alkmaar
vs
Groningen
Eredivisie prediction
Our model says: AZ Alkmaar 2–1 Groningen
The model makes it 52% AZ Alkmaar, 24% draw, 24% Groningen — fair odds of 1.92, 4.17 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: AZ Alkmaar 2.04, Groningen 1.23.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 63%, under 2.5: 37%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,566 settled matches.
Edge to AZ Alkmaar: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. AZ Alkmaar's rating is built from 43 Eredivisie matches and Groningen's from 44, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 715 matches.
Key facts
- AZ Alkmaar are 2nd on 20 points from 9 games; Groningen are 8th on 14 points from 9 games — Eredivisie.
- AZ Alkmaar have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-2 draw away to Cambuur.
- Groningen have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-5 defeat at home to Ajax.
- Last 6 meetings: AZ Alkmaar 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 22 March 2026, ended Groningen 3–0 AZ Alkmaar.
More Eredivisie predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen
Has the model earned this number?
It puts AZ Alkmaar at 52% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 1,179 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen
AZ Alkmaar
Eredivisie
- D2-2away to Cambuur18 October 2026
- L0-2away to Feyenoord10 October 2026
- W1-0Telstar20 September 2026
- D1-1Willem II11 September 2026
- W3-2away to Heerenveen6 September 2026
Groningen
Eredivisie
- L2-5Ajax18 October 2026
- W5-1away to Excelsior11 October 2026
- W3-0PEC Zwolle18 September 2026
- D1-1away to GO Ahead Eagles12 September 2026
- D2-2Twente6 September 2026
What these results say
- AZ Alkmaar scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- AZ Alkmaar conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Groningen scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Groningen conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Groningen had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | AZ Alkmaar | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 20 | 10 | +10 | 20 |
| 8 | Groningen | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 22 | 19 | +3 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen
- 22 March 2026Groningen 3–0 AZ AlkmaarEredivisie
- 10 August 2025AZ Alkmaar 4–1 GroningenEredivisie
- 11 May 2025AZ Alkmaar 3–0 GroningenEredivisie
- 18 December 2024AZ Alkmaar 3–1 GroningenKNVB Beker
- 25 August 2024Groningen 0–0 AZ AlkmaarEredivisie
- 11 March 2023AZ Alkmaar 1–0 GroningenEredivisie
Leading scorers: AZ Alkmaar and Groningen
AZ Alkmaar
GoalsAssists
- R. Daal50
Groningen
GoalsAssists
- T. van Bergen62
- B. Willumsson60
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
AZ Alkmaar carry a model rating of 6.9 against 6.75 for Groningen. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.04 goals for AZ Alkmaar and 1.23 for Groningen. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
AZ Alkmaar rate 0.96 in attack and 0.88 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Groningen rate 0.94 and 1.15.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives AZ Alkmaar a 5.8% chance of the title and Groningen 0.4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives AZ Alkmaar the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.04 expected goals for AZ Alkmaar against 1.23 for Groningen. AZ Alkmaar's attack/defence rating is 0.96/0.88 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.94/1.15 for Groningen.
How the model reaches 52% for AZ Alkmaar to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for AZ Alkmaar to win. Then home advantage adds 7 points, AZ Alkmaar's ratings add 1 point and Groningen's ratings add 7 points, which lands on the published 52%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage44%+7
- AZ Alkmaar's ratings45%+1
- Groningen's ratings52%+7
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
AZ Alkmaar at home · Groningen away
League matches only, Eredivisie, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eredivisie matches this season: AZ Alkmaar 9, Groningen 9.
AZ Alkmaar score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Groningen have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
AZ Alkmaar
- at Sparta Rotterdam22 Nov · Eredivisiewin 52%
- at Sparta Praha26 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 26%
Groningen
- vs Heerenveen21 Nov · Eredivisiewin 42%
- vs Willem II27 Nov · Eredivisiewin 75%
- at Telstar4 Dec · Eredivisiewin 40%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.