MVV
vs
Heracles
Eerste Divisie prediction
Our model says: MVV 0–1 Heracles
The model makes it 29% MVV, 29% draw, 42% Heracles — fair odds of 3.45, 3.45 and 2.38. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: MVV 1.08, Heracles 1.55.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- MVV are 4th on 16 points from 9 games; Heracles are top on 22 points from 9 games — Eerste Divisie, Eerste Divisie: Regular season.
- MVV have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 1-4 defeat away to FC OSS.
- Heracles have won 3 of their last 5, most recently a 2-2 draw away to Helmond Sport.
- Last 2 meetings: Heracles 1 win to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 13 February 2023, ended MVV 0–2 Heracles.
All Eerste Divisie predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: MVV vs Heracles
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Heracles at 42% here. Across 3,018 settled matches (as of 4 October 2026), 1,401 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into MVV vs Heracles
MVV
- L1-4away to FC OSS3 October 2026
- W2-0Helmond Sport26 September 2026
- L1-6away to Waalwijk18 September 2026
- L0-4Almere City FC11 September 2026
- D1-1Roda6 September 2026
Heracles
- D2-2away to Helmond Sport2 October 2026
- W2-0Vitesse26 September 2026
- L0-1away to Almere City FC18 September 2026
- W3-2Jong AZ11 September 2026
- W5-0De Graafschap4 September 2026
What these results say
- MVV failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- MVV scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- MVV conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Heracles scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eerste Divisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | MVV | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 19 | -6 | 16 |
| 1 | Heracles | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 28 | 12 | +16 | 22 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: MVV vs Heracles
- 13 February 2023MVV 0–2 HeraclesEerste Divisie
- 29 August 2022Heracles 2–2 MVVEerste Divisie
Leading scorers: MVV and Heracles
MVV
- O. Dumont5 goals1 assist
Heracles
- J. N'djoli11 goals1 assist
- T. van Gilst6 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
MVV carry a model rating of 6.1 against 6.43 for Heracles. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.08 goals for MVV and 1.55 for Heracles. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
MVV rate 0.45 in attack and 2.04 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Heracles rate 0.63 and 1.47.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives MVV a 0.1% chance of the title and Heracles 22%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,418 correct results out of 3,018 settled predictions (47%), with 294 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Heracles the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.08 expected goals for MVV against 1.55 for Heracles. MVV's attack/defence rating is 0.45/2.04 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.63/1.47 for Heracles.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
MVV at home · Heracles away
League matches only, Eerste Divisie, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eerste Divisie matches this season: MVV 9, Heracles 9.
MVV score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Heracles have let in 5 there.
Heracles score most often in the 31–45 minute window (9 goals); MVV have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
MVV
- at Den Bosch23 Oct · Eerste Divisiewin 26%
- vs VVV Venlo31 Oct · Eerste Divisiewin 30%
- at Emmen8 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 24%
- vs Vitesse15 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 30%
Heracles
- at NAC Breda23 Oct · Eerste Divisiewin 27%
- vs FC OSS2 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 47%
- vs Roda6 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 41%
- at Dordrecht14 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 41%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.