Randers FC
vs
Aarhus
Superliga prediction
The model makes it 35% Randers FC, 28% draw, 37% Aarhus — fair odds of 2.86, 3.57 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Randers FC 1.26, Aarhus 1.30.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: Low.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Randers FC
- W2-0Lyngby9 August 2026
- L0-1away to FC Nordsjaelland2 August 2026
- D1-1Silkeborg27 July 2026
Aarhus
- L1-2away to Viborg14 August 2026
- D2-2away to Lyngby1 August 2026
- D1-1Brondby25 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Superliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Randers FC | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 4 |
| 9 | Aarhus | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 2 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Randers FC
- K. Junker1 goals
Aarhus
- Kristian Fredrik Malt Arnstad2 goals
- Frederik Emmery1 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Randers FC carry a model rating of 6.46 against 6.61 for Aarhus. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Randers FC D-L-W; Aarhus D-D-L.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.26 goals for Randers FC and 1.30 for Aarhus. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Randers FC rate 0.56 in attack and 1.25 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Aarhus rate 0.74 and 1.19.
That points to 47% for over two and a half goals and 53% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Randers FC, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 400 correct results out of 828 settled predictions (48%), with 78 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Aarhus the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Randers FC against 1.3 for Aarhus. Randers FC's attack/defence rating is 0.56/1.25 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.74/1.19 for Aarhus.