Randers FC vs Aarhus Superliga prediction & result
Final score: Randers FC 2-1 Aarhus.
Before kick-off the model made it 34% Randers FC, 30% draw, 36% Aarhus — fair odds of 2.94, 3.33 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Aarhus at 36% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Randers FC vs Aarhus
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Paul IzzoG
- 24Sabil HansenD
- 3Daniel HøeghD
- 6John BjörkengrenD
- 44Nikolas DyhrD
- 8Laurits PedersenM
- 17Mathias GreveM
- 7Mike ThemsenM
- 11Elies MahmoudM
- 15Martin SjølstadM
- 77Kasper JunkerF
- 30Mohamed SankohF
- 5Oliver JonesD
- 21Axel HenrikssonM
- 26Hector HøyrupM
- 22Mert DemirciG
- 29Simon StükerD
- 33Cyril EdudziF
- 19Musa TouréF
- 9Amin Al-HamawiF
- 21Mads HedenstadG
- 25Colin RöslerD
- 33Luka CalløD
- 19Eric KahlD
- 29Rasmus CarstensenM
- 4Magnus KnudsenM
- 7Markus SolbakkenM
- 39Frederik EmmeryM
- 8Sebastian JørgensenF
- 10Kristian ArnstadF
- 28James BogereF
- 13Janni SerraF
- 26Jacob AndersenD
- 31Tobias BechF
- 27Stefen TchamcheF
- 44Mouhammade CamaraD
- 1Jesper HansenG
- 43Zander GrantzauD
- 14Tobias MølgaardD
- 16Jens JønssonM
Form going into Randers FC vs Aarhus
Randers FC
- L0-1away to FC Midtjylland23 August 2026
Aarhus
- L1-3Benfica27 August 2026
- D2-2Odense23 August 2026
- L1-3away to Benfica20 August 2026
- L1-2away to Viborg14 August 2026
- L0-4away to Sabah FA11 August 2026
What these results say
- Aarhus did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Aarhus conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Aarhus had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Superliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Randers FC | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 10 |
| 11 | Aarhus | 9 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 11 | 17 | -6 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Randers FC vs Aarhus
- 30 August 2026Randers FC 2–1 AarhusSuperliga
- 7 December 2025Randers FC 1–2 AarhusSuperliga
- 25 July 2025Aarhus 1–2 Randers FCSuperliga
- 11 May 2025Aarhus 1–3 Randers FCSuperliga
- 17 April 2025Randers FC 3–1 AarhusSuperliga
- 28 February 2025Randers FC 1–1 AarhusSuperliga
Leading scorers: Randers FC and Aarhus
Randers FC
- M. Themsen3 goals1 assist
- E. Mahmoud3 goals1 assist
- M. Sankoh3 goals
Aarhus
- C. McCowatt3 goals2 assists
- J. Serra3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.