Caen
vs
La Roche VF
Ligue 3 prediction
Our model says: Caen 2–1 La Roche VF
The model makes it 39% Caen, 28% draw, 33% La Roche VF — fair odds of 2.56, 3.57 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Caen 1.61, La Roche VF 1.39.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Caen are 3rd on 15 points from 8 games; La Roche VF are top on 18 points from 8 games — Ligue 3.
- Caen have won 3 of their last 5, most recently a 3-2 win at home to Rouen.
- La Roche VF are unbeaten in their last 5 (3 won), most recently a 2-1 win away to Thionville Lusitanos.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Caen vs La Roche VF
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Caen at 39% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Caen vs La Roche VF
Caen
- W3-2Rouen24 September 2026
- L0-2away to Concarneau19 September 2026
- W2-0Gobelins12 September 2026
- W2-0away to Bourg-en-bresse 015 September 2026
- L0-1Bastia27 August 2026
La Roche VF
- W2-1away to Thionville Lusitanos26 September 2026
- W3-2Valenciennes19 September 2026
- D0-0away to Villefranche12 September 2026
- D1-1Quevilly5 September 2026
- W1-0away to Orleans29 August 2026
What these results say
- 4 of these 5 matches for Caen had two goals or fewer.
- La Roche VF went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- La Roche VF scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Caen | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 9 | +6 | 15 |
| 1 | La Roche VF | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 7 | +5 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Caen carry a model rating of 6.24 against 6.31 for La Roche VF. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.61 goals for Caen and 1.39 for La Roche VF. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Caen rate 0.59 in attack and 2.02 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; La Roche VF rate 0.57 and 1.68.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour La Roche VF, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Caen a 7.4% chance of the title and La Roche VF 21.7%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Caen the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Caen against 1.39 for La Roche VF. Caen's attack/defence rating is 0.59/2.02 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.57/1.68 for La Roche VF.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Caen at home · La Roche VF away
League matches only, Ligue 3, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 3 matches this season: Caen 8, La Roche VF 8.
La Roche VF score most often in the 46–60 minute window (5 goals); Caen have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Caen
- at Le Puy Foot31 Oct · Ligue 3win 32%
- vs Versailles7 Nov · Ligue 3win 44%
- at Amiens19 Nov · Ligue 3win 30%
- vs Cannes3 Dec · Ligue 3win 34%
La Roche VF
- vs Bourg-en-bresse 0131 Oct · Ligue 3win 59%
- at Gobelins7 Nov · Ligue 3win 41%
- vs Concarneau21 Nov · Ligue 3win 47%
- at Rouen5 Dec · Ligue 3win 29%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.