Mansfield Town
vs
Oxford United
League One prediction
Our model says: Mansfield Town 0–1 Oxford United
The model makes it 34% Mansfield Town, 30% draw, 36% Oxford United — fair odds of 2.94, 3.33 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Mansfield Town 1.24, Oxford United 1.34.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Mansfield Town and Oxford United are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Mansfield Town are 17th on 8 points from 7 games; Oxford United are 10th on 11 points from 6 games — League One.
- Mansfield Town are without a win in 4, most recently a 2-2 draw away to Burton Albion.
- Oxford United are unbeaten in 3, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Cambridge United.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 27 July 2024, ended Mansfield Town 1–0 Oxford United.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Mansfield Town vs Oxford United
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Oxford United at 36% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Mansfield Town vs Oxford United
Mansfield Town
- D2-2away to Burton Albion19 September 2026
- D0-0Huddersfield12 September 2026
- L0-1away to Bradford5 September 2026
- L0-5away to Reading2 September 2026
- W5-2Luton30 August 2026
Oxford United
- D1-1Cambridge United19 September 2026
- W3-0Burton Albion12 September 2026
- W4-0away to Leicester5 September 2026
- L1-3away to Huddersfield1 September 2026
- W2-1away to Stevenage22 August 2026
What these results say
- Mansfield Town failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Mansfield Town conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Oxford United scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Oxford United had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
League One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Mansfield Town | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 8 |
| 10 | Oxford United | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 7 | +6 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Mansfield Town vs Oxford United
- 27 July 2024Mansfield Town 1–0 Oxford UnitedFriendlies Clubs
- 9 February 2016Oxford United 2–2 Mansfield TownLeague Two
- 22 August 2015Mansfield Town 1–1 Oxford UnitedLeague Two
- 21 February 2015Oxford United 3–0 Mansfield TownLeague Two
- 16 August 2014Mansfield Town 2–1 Oxford UnitedLeague Two
- 15 February 2014Oxford United 3–0 Mansfield TownLeague Two
Leading scorers: Mansfield Town and Oxford United
Mansfield Town
No player in League One's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
Oxford United
- G. O'Donkor3 goals1 assist
- M. Harris3 goals1 assist
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Mansfield Town carry a model rating of 6.3 against 6.44 for Oxford United. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.24 goals for Mansfield Town and 1.34 for Oxford United. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Mansfield Town rate 0.58 in attack and 1.74 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Oxford United rate 0.62 and 1.41.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Mansfield Town a 1.8% chance of the title and Oxford United 15.9%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Oxford United the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Mansfield Town against 1.34 for Oxford United. Mansfield Town's attack/defence rating is 0.58/1.74 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.62/1.41 for Oxford United.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Mansfield Town at home · Oxford United away
League matches only, League One, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All League One matches this season: Mansfield Town 7, Oxford United 6.
Mansfield Town score most often in the 16–30 minute window (4 goals); Oxford United have let in 1 there.
Oxford United score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Mansfield Town have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Mansfield Town
- at AFC Wimbledon20 Oct · League Onewin 38%
- at Blackpool24 Oct · League Onewin 34%
Oxford United
- vs Wigan20 Oct · League Onewin 50%
- vs Bradford24 Oct · League Onewin 41%
- vs Stockport County27 Oct · League Onewin 41%
- at Barnsley31 Oct · League Onewin 43%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.