Manisa F.K.
vs
Esenler Erokspor
1. Lig prediction
Our model says: Manisa F.K. 1–0 Esenler Erokspor
The model makes it 37% Manisa F.K., 30% draw, 33% Esenler Erokspor — fair odds of 2.70, 3.33 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Manisa F.K. 1.35, Esenler Erokspor 1.20.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Manisa F.K. are 13th on 9 points from 8 games; Esenler Erokspor are 17th on 5 points from 8 games — 1. Lig.
- Manisa F.K. have not won in their last 5, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to İstanbulspor.
- Esenler Erokspor have not won in their last 5, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Fatih Karagümrük.
- Last 4 meetings: Esenler Erokspor 3 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 13 February 2026, ended Esenler Erokspor 3–1 Manisa F.K..
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Manisa F.K. vs Esenler Erokspor
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Manisa F.K. at 37% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Manisa F.K. vs Esenler Erokspor
Manisa F.K.
- L0-1İstanbulspor20 September 2026
- D1-1away to Fatih Karagümrük13 September 2026
- L1-2Bursaspor7 September 2026
- L2-4away to Iğdır FK3 September 2026
- D0-0Bodrum FK30 August 2026
Esenler Erokspor
- L0-2Fatih Karagümrük19 September 2026
- D2-2away to Bursaspor13 September 2026
- L0-3Kayserispor7 September 2026
- D0-0away to Bodrum FK3 September 2026
- L0-1Iğdır FK30 August 2026
What these results say
- Manisa F.K. did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Manisa F.K. conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Esenler Erokspor did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Esenler Erokspor failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Esenler Erokspor conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
1. Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Manisa F.K. | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 9 |
| 17 | Esenler Erokspor | 8 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Manisa F.K. vs Esenler Erokspor
- 13 February 2026Esenler Erokspor 3–1 Manisa F.K.1. Lig
- 20 September 2025Manisa F.K. 3–4 Esenler Erokspor1. Lig
- 8 March 2025Esenler Erokspor 1–1 Manisa F.K.1. Lig
- 28 October 2024Manisa F.K. 0–1 Esenler Erokspor1. Lig
Leading scorers: Manisa F.K. and Esenler Erokspor
Manisa F.K.
- J. Anziani5 goals1 assist
- C. Sylla4 goals2 assists
Esenler Erokspor
No player in 1. Lig's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Manisa F.K. carry a model rating of 6.31 against 6.4 for Esenler Erokspor. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.35 goals for Manisa F.K. and 1.20 for Esenler Erokspor. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Manisa F.K. rate 0.59 in attack and 1.75 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Esenler Erokspor rate 0.57 and 1.41.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Manisa F.K. a 0.2% chance of the title and Esenler Erokspor 0.5%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Manisa F.K. the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Manisa F.K. against 1.20 for Esenler Erokspor. Manisa F.K.'s attack/defence rating is 0.59/1.75 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.57/1.41 for Esenler Erokspor.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Manisa F.K. at home · Esenler Erokspor away
League matches only, 1. Lig, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 1. Lig matches this season: Manisa F.K. 8, Esenler Erokspor 8.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Manisa F.K.
- vs Muğlaspor19 Oct · 1. Ligwin 39%
- at Mardin 196926 Oct · 1. Ligwin 25%
- vs Batman Petrolspor31 Oct · 1. Ligwin 41%
- at Keçiörengücü7 Nov · 1. Ligwin 23%
Esenler Erokspor
- vs Mardin 196919 Oct · 1. Ligwin 37%
- at Batman Petrolspor25 Oct · 1. Ligwin 32%
- vs Keçiörengücü30 Oct · 1. Ligwin 37%
- at Muğlaspor7 Nov · 1. Ligwin 31%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.