FCSB
vs
Uta Arad
Liga I prediction
The model makes it 68% FCSB, 21% draw, 11% Uta Arad — fair odds of 1.47, 4.76 and 9.09. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (13%).
Expected goals: FCSB 2.04, Uta Arad 0.70.
Both teams to score: 44%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
FCSB
- W3-2FC Botosani17 August 2026
- D0-0away to Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe10 August 2026
- D2-2Farul Constanta3 August 2026
- W2-0away to Csikszereda26 July 2026
- W2-0Arges Pitesti17 July 2026
Uta Arad
- D0-0Corvinul Hunedoara22 August 2026
- L1-2away to Universitatea Cluj17 August 2026
- D0-0Rapid7 August 2026
- L0-1away to FC Voluntari1 August 2026
- D2-2Oțelul24 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | FCSB | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 4 | +5 | 11 |
| 15 | Uta Arad | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 9 | -6 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: FCSB vs Uta Arad
- 20 March 2026FCSB 1–0 Uta AradLiga I
- 1 March 2026Uta Arad 2–4 FCSBLiga I
- 3 December 2025Uta Arad 3–0 FCSBCupa României
- 26 October 2025FCSB 4–0 Uta AradLiga I
- 26 January 2025Uta Arad 0–1 FCSBLiga I
- 1 September 2024FCSB 2–0 Uta AradLiga I
Leading scorers
FCSB
- D. Bîrligea3 goals
Uta Arad
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
FCSB carry a model rating of 6.58 against 6.25 for Uta Arad. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): FCSB W-W-D-D-W; Uta Arad D-L-D-L-D.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.04 goals for FCSB and 0.70 for Uta Arad. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FCSB rate 0.80 in attack and 1.39 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Uta Arad rate 0.36 and 1.35.
That points to 52% for over two and a half goals and 44% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-0 (13%), 1-0 (13%), 1-1 (10%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 542 correct results out of 1143 settled predictions (47%), with 104 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FCSB the highest probability at 68%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.04 expected goals for FCSB against 0.7 for Uta Arad. FCSB's attack/defence rating is 0.8/1.39 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.36/1.35 for Uta Arad.