FCSB vs Uta Arad Liga I prediction & result
Final score: FCSB 1-3 Uta Arad.
Before kick-off the model made it 44% FCSB, 30% draw, 26% Uta Arad — fair odds of 2.27, 3.33 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts FCSB at 44% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — FCSB vs Uta Arad
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 32S. TarnovanuG
- 5J. DawaD
- 21D. BatubinsikaD
- 3A. DuarteD
- 31J. CisottiM
- 18Joao PauloM
- 15O. AradM
- 4R. PadurariuM
- 11D. MiculescuF
- 14A. GaritaF
- 28A. BoutoutaouF
- 34M. UdreaG
- 13M. PopaG
- 97R. LabonneD
- 8E. GnahoreM
- 77L. StancuM
- 20D. PoliticF
- 98D. PopaF
- 90A. StoianF
- 1M. RosaG
- 2A. DorobantuD
- 15P. OuanehD
- 4A. BengaD
- 3D. AlomerovicD
- 8A. RomanM
- 5S. MinoM
- 11H. AbdallahM
- 77J. PapeauM
- 20D. TaroiM
- 9M. ComanF
- 33A. GorceaG
- 72A. PadulaD
- 22R. BadescuD
- 19D. IleM
- 7I. SinaniF
- 10M. TzionisF
Form going into FCSB vs Uta Arad
FCSB
- L0-1away to CFR 1907 Cluj23 August 2026
- W3-2FC Botosani17 August 2026
- D0-0away to Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe10 August 2026
- D2-2Farul Constanta3 August 2026
- L1-4away to Auda30 July 2026
Uta Arad
- D0-0Corvinul Hunedoara22 August 2026
- L1-2away to Universitatea Cluj17 August 2026
- D0-0Rapid7 August 2026
- L0-1away to FC Voluntari1 August 2026
- D2-2Oțelul24 July 2026
What these results say
- FCSB failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- FCSB conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Uta Arad did not win any of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | FCSB | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 17 | -3 | 15 |
| 12 | Uta Arad | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 14 | 17 | -3 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: FCSB vs Uta Arad
- 20 March 2026FCSB 1–0 Uta AradLiga I
- 1 March 2026Uta Arad 2–4 FCSBLiga I
- 3 December 2025Uta Arad 3–0 FCSBCupa României
- 26 October 2025FCSB 4–0 Uta AradLiga I
- 26 January 2025Uta Arad 0–1 FCSBLiga I
- 1 September 2024FCSB 2–0 Uta AradLiga I
Leading scorers: FCSB and Uta Arad
FCSB
No player in Liga I's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.
Uta Arad
GoalsAssists
- M. Coman40
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.