Rapid vs Universitatea Craiova Liga I prediction & result
Final score: Rapid 1-1 Universitatea Craiova.
Before kick-off the model made it 49% Rapid, 27% draw, 24% Universitatea Craiova — fair odds of 2.04, 3.70 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Rapid at 49% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Rapid vs Universitatea Craiova
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 16M. AioaniG
- 19R. OneaD
- 5A. PascanuD
- 6L. KramerD
- 21R. SalceanuD
- 8C. GrameniM
- 15C. VulturarM
- 44C. B. DoumbiaM
- 80O. MorutanF
- 9F. StojilkovicF
- 29A. DobreF
- 99B. UngureanuG
- 23C. ManeaD
- 13D. CiobotariuD
- 42A. Kumer CelikD
- 66W. L. OuedraogoD
- 22V. BubanjaM
- 79E. TapeM
- 88O. El SawyM
- 7M. KamaraF
- 21L. PopescuG
- 3O. RomanchukD
- 24N. StevanovicD
- 6V. ScreciuD
- 17C. MoraM
- 8T. BalutaM
- 20A. CicaldauM
- 11N. BancuM
- 30D. MateiF
- 9A. Al HamlawiF
- 10S. BaiaramF
- 90R. SavaG
- 1A. MaximG
- 31R. WebsterD
- 4A. CretuM
- 23TelesM
- 29L. BasceanuM
- 19Heriberto TavaresD
- 7S. NsimbaF
- 12M. EtimF
Form going into Rapid vs Universitatea Craiova
Rapid
- W2-0away to Petrolul Ploiesti21 August 2026
- L0-1Dinamo Bucuresti15 August 2026
- D0-0away to Uta Arad7 August 2026
- W3-1CFR 1907 Cluj2 August 2026
- D1-1away to FC Botosani27 July 2026
Universitatea Craiova
- L0-1away to Ararat-Armenia27 August 2026
- W3-1FC Voluntari23 August 2026
- D1-1Ararat-Armenia20 August 2026
- D1-1away to Oțelul16 August 2026
- W2-1KuPS13 August 2026
What these results say
- 4 of these 5 matches for Rapid had two goals or fewer.
- Universitatea Craiova conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Universitatea Craiova scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Universitatea Craiova.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Rapid | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 18 | 9 | +9 | 24 |
| 3 | Universitatea Craiova | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 25 | 9 | +16 | 23 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Rapid vs Universitatea Craiova
- 25 May 2026Rapid 0–0 Universitatea CraiovaLiga I
- 19 April 2026Universitatea Craiova 1–0 RapidLiga I
- 8 March 2026Rapid 1–1 Universitatea CraiovaLiga I
- 2 November 2025Universitatea Craiova 2–2 RapidLiga I
- 2 May 2025Universitatea Craiova 1–2 RapidLiga I
- 29 March 2025Rapid 1–2 Universitatea CraiovaLiga I
Leading scorers: Rapid and Universitatea Craiova
Rapid
GoalsAssists
- F. Stojilković31
Universitatea Craiova
GoalsAssists
- S. Elisor60
- A. Al Hamlawi40
- S. Nsimba40
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.