Tenerife
vs
Girona
Segunda División prediction
Our model says: Tenerife 0–1 Girona
The model makes it 30% Tenerife, 30% draw, 40% Girona — fair odds of 3.33, 3.33 and 2.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Tenerife 1.08, Girona 1.40.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%, under 2.5: 55%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Tenerife are 9th on 11 points from 7 games; Girona are 5th on 13 points from 7 games — Segunda División.
- Tenerife have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Cadiz.
- Girona have won 4 of their last 5, most recently a 2-0 win at home to Albacete.
- Last 6 meetings: Tenerife 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 19 June 2022, ended Tenerife 1–3 Girona.
All Segunda División predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Tenerife vs Girona
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Girona at 40% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Tenerife vs Girona
Tenerife
- D1-1Cadiz26 September 2026
- L0-5away to Castellón19 September 2026
- W2-0Leganes13 September 2026
- D1-1away to Real Sociedad II5 September 2026
- L0-1Sporting Gijon28 August 2026
Girona
- W2-0Albacete25 September 2026
- W2-1away to Cadiz19 September 2026
- L1-2Castellón12 September 2026
- W2-0away to Sporting Gijon5 September 2026
- W5-2Las Palmas29 August 2026
What these results say
- Tenerife failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Tenerife conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Tenerife had two goals or fewer.
- Girona scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Girona won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Tenerife | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 11 |
| 5 | Girona | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Tenerife vs Girona
- 19 June 2022Tenerife 1–3 GironaSegunda División
- 11 June 2022Girona 0–0 TenerifeSegunda División
- 9 May 2022Girona 0–1 TenerifeSegunda División
- 8 November 2021Tenerife 2–1 GironaSegunda División
- 1 May 2021Girona 1–0 TenerifeSegunda División
- 21 December 2020Tenerife 2–0 GironaSegunda División
Leading scorers: Tenerife and Girona
Tenerife
- Enric Gallego5 goals
Girona
- Y. Asprilla4 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Tenerife carry a model rating of 6.48 against 6.73 for Girona. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.08 goals for Tenerife and 1.40 for Girona. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Tenerife rate 0.67 in attack and 1.41 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Girona rate 0.83 and 1.05.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Tenerife a 0.2% chance of the title and Girona 9.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Girona the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Tenerife against 1.40 for Girona. Tenerife's attack/defence rating is 0.67/1.41 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.83/1.05 for Girona.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Tenerife at home · Girona away
League matches only, Segunda División, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Segunda División matches this season: Tenerife 7, Girona 7.
Girona score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Tenerife have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Tenerife
- at Celta de Vigo II19 Oct · Segunda Divisiónwin 33%
- at Sabadell25 Oct · Segunda Divisiónwin 26%
- vs FC Andorra1 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 40%
- at Granada CF8 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 32%
Girona
- vs FC Andorra18 Oct · Segunda Divisiónwin 51%
- vs Celta de Vigo II25 Oct · Segunda Divisiónwin 52%
- at Real Sociedad II1 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 39%
- vs Almeria8 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 43%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.