Oviedo
vs
Eibar
Segunda División prediction
Our model says: Oviedo 1–0 Eibar
The model makes it 36% Oviedo, 31% draw, 33% Eibar — fair odds of 2.78, 3.23 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Oviedo 1.23, Eibar 1.11.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 41%, under 2.5: 59%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Oviedo and Eibar are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Oviedo are 8th on 11 points from 8 games; Eibar are 2nd on 18 points from 7 games — Segunda División.
- Oviedo have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 1-4 defeat away to Eldense.
- Eibar are unbeaten in their last 5 (5 won), most recently a 3-2 win at home to Las Palmas.
- Last 6 meetings: Oviedo 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 5 April 2025, ended Eibar 1–1 Oviedo.
All Segunda División predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Oviedo vs Eibar
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Oviedo at 36% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Oviedo vs Eibar
Oviedo
- L1-4away to Eldense2 October 2026
- W2-0Sporting Gijon27 September 2026
- L1-3away to Sabadell20 September 2026
- W3-0away to Valladolid13 September 2026
- D0-0Burgos6 September 2026
Eibar
- W3-2Las Palmas27 September 2026
- W2-1away to Eldense19 September 2026
- W4-0away to Celta de Vigo II14 September 2026
- W3-0Granada CF6 September 2026
- W1-0away to FC Andorra30 August 2026
What these results say
- Oviedo scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Eibar won every one of these 5 matches.
- Eibar scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Eibar had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Oviedo | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 11 |
| 2 | Eibar | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 6 | +9 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Oviedo vs Eibar
- 5 April 2025Eibar 1–1 OviedoSegunda División
- 29 September 2024Oviedo 1–0 EibarSegunda División
- 12 June 2024Eibar 0–2 OviedoSegunda División
- 8 June 2024Oviedo 0–0 EibarSegunda División
- 2 June 2024Eibar 4–3 OviedoSegunda División
- 19 November 2023Oviedo 2–1 EibarSegunda División
Leading scorers: Oviedo and Eibar
Oviedo
No player in Segunda División's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Eibar
- Jon Guruzeta3 goals2 assists
- Malcom Adu2 goals3 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Oviedo carry a model rating of 6.65 against 6.72 for Eibar. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.23 goals for Oviedo and 1.11 for Eibar. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Oviedo rate 0.75 in attack and 1.12 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Eibar rate 0.83 and 1.07.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Eibar, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Oviedo a 1.4% chance of the title and Eibar 18.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Oviedo the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Oviedo against 1.11 for Eibar. Oviedo's attack/defence rating is 0.75/1.12 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.83/1.07 for Eibar.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Oviedo at home · Eibar away
League matches only, Segunda División, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Segunda División matches this season: Oviedo 8, Eibar 7.
Eibar score most often in the 0–15 minute window (5 goals); Oviedo have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Oviedo
- at AD Ceuta FC18 Oct · Segunda Divisiónwin 44%
- at Almeria25 Oct · Segunda Divisiónwin 30%
- vs Las Palmas1 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 44%
- at Cadiz8 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 42%
- vs Girona15 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 36%
Eibar
- vs Mallorca17 Oct · Segunda Divisiónwin 39%
- at Cordoba25 Oct · Segunda Divisiónwin 44%
- vs Almeria1 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 42%
- at Castellón8 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 29%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.