Paks
vs
Budapest Honved
The model makes it 77% Paks, 12% draw, 11% Budapest Honved — fair odds of 1.30, 8.33 and 9.09. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 3-1 (7%).
Expected goals: Paks 3.75, Budapest Honved 1.55.
Both teams to score: 77%. Over 2.5 goals: 90%, under 2.5: 10%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Paks
- L2-5away to Zalaegerszegi TE3 August 2026
- W4-2Ferencvarosi TC26 July 2026
Budapest Honved
- D3-3MTK Budapest1 August 2026
- D1-1away to Kisvarda FC25 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
NB I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Paks | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 3 |
| 9 | Budapest Honved | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 2 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Paks vs Budapest Honved
- 31 October 2024Budapest Honved 1–5 PaksMagyar Kupa
- 2 November 2023Budapest Honved 2–2 PaksMagyar Kupa
- 1 April 2023Budapest Honved 1–2 PaksNB I
- 6 November 2022Paks 5–0 Budapest HonvedNB I
- 14 August 2022Budapest Honved 3–3 PaksNB I
- 2 April 2022Budapest Honved 1–1 PaksNB I
Leading scorers
Paks
- J. Szalai3 goals1 assists
- M. Pető2 goals
Budapest Honved
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Paks carry a model rating of 6.64 against 6.3 for Budapest Honved. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Paks W-L; Budapest Honved D-D.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 3.75 goals for Paks and 1.55 for Budapest Honved. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Paks rate 1.06 in attack and 1.79 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Budapest Honved rate 0.62 and 1.87.
That points to 90% for over two and a half goals and 77% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 3-1 (7%), 4-1 (6%), 2-1 (6%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 211 correct results out of 450 settled predictions (47%), with 45 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Paks the highest probability at 77%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 3.75 expected goals for Paks against 1.55 for Budapest Honved. Paks's attack/defence rating is 1.06/1.79 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.62/1.87 for Budapest Honved.