NB I · Regular Season - 3 · 9 August 2026, 15:30 UTC

Debreceni VSC vs Nyiregyhaza

Nagyerdei Stadion, Debrecen

The model makes it 82% Debreceni VSC, 12% draw, 6% Nyiregyhaza — fair odds of 1.22, 8.33 and 16.67. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 3-0 (10%).

Expected goals: Debreceni VSC 3.17, Nyiregyhaza 0.85.

Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 76%, under 2.5: 24%.

Model confidence: High.

Model insights

55%
Both teams to score
76%
Over 2.5 goals
24%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines3-0 10%2-0 9%3-1 8%

Form going into this match

Debreceni VSC

  • L2-4away to Ujpest2 August 2026
  • L0-2Puskas Academy26 July 2026

Nyiregyhaza

  • L0-4away to Gyori ETO FC2 August 2026
  • W2-1Ujpest24 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.

NB I table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12Debreceni VSC200226-40
8Nyiregyhaza210125-33

Where the two sides stand. Full tables

Head-to-head: Debreceni VSC vs Nyiregyhaza

  • 14 March 2026Debreceni VSC 1–1 NyiregyhazaNB I
  • 28 November 2025Nyiregyhaza 0–3 Debreceni VSCNB I
  • 17 August 2025Debreceni VSC 1–2 NyiregyhazaNB I
  • 25 April 2025Nyiregyhaza 1–0 Debreceni VSCNB I
  • 2 February 2025Debreceni VSC 3–1 NyiregyhazaNB I
  • 21 September 2024Nyiregyhaza 3–2 Debreceni VSCNB I

A clear gap in the ratings

Debreceni VSC carry a model rating of 6.49 against 5.98 for Nyiregyhaza. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.

Recent form (most recent last): Debreceni VSC L-L; Nyiregyhaza W-L.

The model expects goals

Under the hood the model expects 3.17 goals for Debreceni VSC and 0.85 for Nyiregyhaza. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.

Debreceni VSC rate 0.73 in attack and 1.51 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Nyiregyhaza rate 0.40 and 2.30.

That points to 76% for over two and a half goals and 55% for both teams to score.

The three most likely scorelines are 3-0 (10%), 2-0 (9%), 3-1 (8%).

Where the model differs from the table

The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Nyiregyhaza, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 211 correct results out of 450 settled predictions (47%), with 45 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Debreceni VSC the highest probability at 82%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 3.17 expected goals for Debreceni VSC against 0.85 for Nyiregyhaza. Debreceni VSC's attack/defence rating is 0.73/1.51 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.4/2.3 for Nyiregyhaza.