Zalaegerszegi TE
vs
MTK Budapest
NB I prediction
Our model says: Zalaegerszegi TE 2–1 MTK Budapest
The model makes it 44% Zalaegerszegi TE, 25% draw, 31% MTK Budapest — fair odds of 2.27, 4.00 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Zalaegerszegi TE 1.80, MTK Budapest 1.44.
Both teams to score: 64%. Over 2.5 goals: 63%, under 2.5: 37%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Zalaegerszegi TE are 11th on 9 points from 9 games; MTK Budapest are 7th on 12 points from 10 games — NB I.
- Zalaegerszegi TE have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 5-1 win at home to Nyiregyhaza.
- MTK Budapest have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Vasas.
- Last 6 meetings: MTK Budapest 3 wins to 0, 3 draws; the most recent, 27 July 2026, ended MTK Budapest 3–0 Zalaegerszegi TE.
More Hungarian NB I predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Zalaegerszegi TE vs MTK Budapest
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Zalaegerszegi TE at 44% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 1,906 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Zalaegerszegi TE vs MTK Budapest
Zalaegerszegi TE
- W5-1Nyiregyhaza11 October 2026
- L1-2away to Ujpest20 September 2026
- W1-0Puskas Academy6 September 2026
- L0-1away to Budapest Honved29 August 2026
- L0-3away to Gyori ETO FC23 August 2026
MTK Budapest
- W1-0Vasas16 October 2026
- L0-3away to Paks10 October 2026
- L1-2Gyori ETO FC20 September 2026
- L1-2Kisvarda FC5 September 2026
- D2-2away to Debreceni VSC28 August 2026
What these results say
- Zalaegerszegi TE conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- MTK Budapest failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- MTK Budapest scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- MTK Budapest conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
NB I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Zalaegerszegi TE | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 12 | 18 | -6 | 9 |
| 7 | MTK Budapest | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Zalaegerszegi TE
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 38% today
MTK Budapest
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 41% today
From our NB I season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Zalaegerszegi TE vs MTK Budapest
- 27 July 2026MTK Budapest 3–0 Zalaegerszegi TENB I
- 11 April 2026MTK Budapest 3–0 Zalaegerszegi TENB I
- 20 December 2025Zalaegerszegi TE 1–1 MTK BudapestNB I
- 21 September 2025MTK Budapest 1–0 Zalaegerszegi TENB I
- 8 March 2025Zalaegerszegi TE 1–1 MTK BudapestNB I
- 2 November 2024MTK Budapest 1–1 Zalaegerszegi TENB I
Leading scorers: Zalaegerszegi TE and MTK Budapest
Zalaegerszegi TE
GoalsAssists
- Arthur Henrique30
MTK Budapest
GoalsAssists
- G. Jurek51
- Zalán Márk Kerezsi43
- I. Bognár22
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Zalaegerszegi TE carry a model rating of 6.41 against 6.38 for MTK Budapest. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.80 goals for Zalaegerszegi TE and 1.44 for MTK Budapest. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Zalaegerszegi TE rate 0.64 in attack and 1.55 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; MTK Budapest rate 0.66 and 1.69.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour MTK Budapest, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Zalaegerszegi TE a 0.6% chance of the title and MTK Budapest 0.5%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Zalaegerszegi TE the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Zalaegerszegi TE against 1.44 for MTK Budapest. Zalaegerszegi TE's attack/defence rating is 0.64/1.55 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.66/1.69 for MTK Budapest.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Zalaegerszegi TE at home · MTK Budapest away
League matches only, NB I, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All NB I matches this season: Zalaegerszegi TE 9, MTK Budapest 10.
Zalaegerszegi TE score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); MTK Budapest have let in 4 there.
MTK Budapest score most often in the 61–75 minute window (4 goals); Zalaegerszegi TE have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Zalaegerszegi TE
- at Paks7 Nov · NB Iwin 28%
- vs Vasas21 Nov · NB Iwin 35%
- at Ferencvarosi TC28 Nov · NB Iwin 20%
MTK Budapest
- vs Budapest Honved7 Nov · NB Iwin 41%
- at Puskas Academy21 Nov · NB Iwin 25%
- vs Ujpest28 Nov · NB Iwin 38%
- at Nyiregyhaza5 Dec · NB Iwin 38%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.