Leicester
vs
Mansfield Town
League One prediction
Our model says: Leicester 2–1 Mansfield Town
The model makes it 42% Leicester, 26% draw, 32% Mansfield Town — fair odds of 2.38, 3.85 and 3.13.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Leicester 1.65, Mansfield Town 1.36.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Leicester's rating is built from 13 League One matches and Mansfield Town's from 59, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,277 matches.
Key facts
- Leicester are 11th on 19 points from 13 games; Mansfield Town are 12th on 19 points from 13 games — League One.
- Leicester have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Stevenage.
- Mansfield Town have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw away to Wigan.
More League One predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Leicester vs Mansfield Town
Has the model earned this number?
Leicester at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Leicester vs Mansfield Town
Leicester
League One
- D2-2Stevenage31 October 2026
- W3-0Wigan27 October 2026
- L1-2away to Luton24 October 2026
- W4-0away to Bromley20 October 2026
- W2-1Doncaster17 October 2026
Mansfield Town
League One
- D0-0away to Wigan3 November 2026
- L0-2Notts County31 October 2026
- W4-1away to Blackpool24 October 2026
- W3-0away to AFC Wimbledon20 October 2026
- D1-1Oxford United15 October 2026
What these results say
- Leicester scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Leicester had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
League One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Leicester | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 22 | 19 | +3 | 19 |
| 12 | Mansfield Town | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 20 | 18 | +2 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Mansfield Town
Chance to finish in the top two · 5% today
From our League One season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Leading scorers: Leicester and Mansfield Town
Leicester
GoalsAssists
- E. Riis61
Mansfield Town
GoalsAssists
- M. Smith62
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Leicester a 0.9% chance of the title and Mansfield Town 1.6%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Leicester the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Leicester against 1.36 for Mansfield Town. Leicester's attack/defence rating is 0.65/1.87 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.59/1.65 for Mansfield Town.
How the model reaches 42% for Leicester to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Leicester to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, Leicester's ratings change nothing and Mansfield Town's ratings take away 1 point, which lands on the published 42%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage42%+6
- Both sides at this match's level43%+1
- Leicester's ratings43%±0
- Mansfield Town's ratings42%−1
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Leicester at home · Mansfield Town away
League matches only, League One, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All League One matches this season: Leicester 13, Mansfield Town 13.
Mansfield Town score most often in the 16–30 minute window (8 goals); Leicester have let in 3 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Leicester
- at Cambridge United1 Dec · League Onewin 35%
- vs Sheffield Wednesday10 Dec · League Onewin 37%
Mansfield Town
- vs Stockport County1 Dec · League Onewin 36%
- vs Wycombe12 Dec · League Onewin 46%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.