Hibernian
vs
Gent
UEFA Europa Conference League prediction
The model makes it 8% Hibernian, 15% draw, 77% Gent — fair odds of 12.50, 6.67 and 1.30. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-2 (11%).
Expected goals: Hibernian 0.82, Gent 2.71.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 68%, under 2.5: 32%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Hibernian
- W2-1away to Rangers9 August 2026
- L1-2Motherwell2 August 2026
Gent
- W2-0KV Mechelen9 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Domestic league positions
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Hibernian | Premiership | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Gent | Jupiler Pro League | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables
A clear gap in the ratings
Hibernian carry a model rating of 6.21 against 6.96 for Gent. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Hibernian L-W; Gent W.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 0.82 goals for Hibernian and 2.71 for Gent. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Hibernian rate 0.50 in attack and 1.79 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Gent rate 1.08 and 0.87.
That points to 68% for over two and a half goals and 53% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 0-2 (11%), 0-3 (10%), 1-2 (9%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 336 correct results out of 706 settled predictions (48%), with 66 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Gent the highest probability at 77%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.82 expected goals for Hibernian against 2.71 for Gent. Hibernian's attack/defence rating is 0.5/1.79 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.08/0.87 for Gent.