Bournemouth
vs
Aston Villa
League Cup prediction
Our model says: Bournemouth 2–1 Aston Villa
The model makes it 39% Bournemouth, 26% draw, 35% Aston Villa — fair odds of 2.56, 3.85 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Bournemouth 1.61, Aston Villa 1.50.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.
Model confidence: Low.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
The full preview, with the complete head-to-head record →
Key facts
- Bournemouth have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-5 defeat away to Chelsea.
- Aston Villa have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Brentford.
- Last 6 meetings: Aston Villa 3 wins to 0, 3 draws; the most recent, 7 February 2026, ended Bournemouth 1–1 Aston Villa.
Chance to go through
League Cup Round of 16 — a single match: the winner goes through.
- Bournemouth40%
- Level after ninety minutes25%
- Aston Villa35%
The model's chance of each side going through in ninety minutes. Level means extra time or penalties, which it does not forecast. A new figure: not yet checked against settled ties, so read it as an estimate, not a record.
More Carabao Cup predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Bournemouth vs Aston Villa
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Bournemouth at 39% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 2,861 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Bournemouth vs Aston Villa
Bournemouth
- L1-5away to Chelsea10 October 2026
- L0-1Liverpool20 September 2026
- W2-1away to Real Sociedad17 September 2026
- D2-2Brentford12 September 2026
- D2-2away to Newcastle5 September 2026
Aston Villa
- D2-2Brentford10 October 2026
- W3-2away to Tottenham19 September 2026
- L1-2Nottingham Forest12 September 2026
- W3-2away to Club Brugge KV8 September 2026
- D0-0away to Hull City5 September 2026
What these results say
- Bournemouth conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Bournemouth failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Bournemouth scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Aston Villa scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Aston Villa conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Aston Villa had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Head-to-head: Bournemouth vs Aston Villa
- 7 February 2026Bournemouth 1–1 Aston VillaPremier League
- 9 November 2025Aston Villa 4–0 BournemouthPremier League
- 10 May 2025Bournemouth 0–1 Aston VillaPremier League
- 26 October 2024Aston Villa 1–1 BournemouthPremier League
- 21 April 2024Aston Villa 3–1 BournemouthPremier League
- 3 December 2023Bournemouth 2–2 Aston VillaPremier League
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Bournemouth carry a model rating of 6.86 against 6.98 for Aston Villa. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.61 goals for Bournemouth and 1.50 for Aston Villa. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Bournemouth rate 1.03 in attack and 1.01 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Aston Villa rate 1.23 and 0.96.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Bournemouth the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Bournemouth against 1.50 for Aston Villa. Bournemouth's attack/defence rating is 1.03/1.01 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.23/0.96 for Aston Villa.
Season stats
Bournemouth at home · Aston Villa away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Bournemouth 6, Aston Villa 6.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Bournemouth
- vs Leeds31 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 35%
- at Sparta Praha5 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 24%
Aston Villa
- vs Fulham31 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 50%
- at Barcelona3 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 12%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.